Re: pharmaco--TG

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Posted by TGAB on May 29, 2001 at 17:14:53:

In Reply to: pharmaco posted by kanthanka on May 29, 2001 at 14:21:51:

: On monday F.L.jr s`horse never lifted a hoof but Dutrow and Lake both sent live ones who just missed running one two at decent prices what do t.g.experts do when faced with horses trained by above trainers ,and there like,pitted againsted horses with positive t.g. patterns,it seems to me that the analysis ignores this problem and recommends the good looking line horses which i think is a sure route to homelessness and i think this fact is maybe the reason for the outburst of the gentleman who posted a tirade on the 0/2/x ? though the injecting of speed may not of helped him in expressing his views in a tranquill manner but the point being what looks good in the classroom does not always transfer into profits in the real world so i think we should all try and discuss these handicapping problems,such as i previous posted and received not one reply.I asked what is one to do when a trainers record is poor but the line is strong .

TG--On Monday, FL Jr's horse ran in the 6th race. The Dutrow, Lake combo clicked for 1-3 in the 7th race. So Jr's horse did not race against the duo. Certainly what looks good in the classroom doesn't always translate on the track.

There are random factors involved that we can't control. For instance some horses don't like to run on the rail for whatever reason, idiosyncracy, yet the shortest distance in a race is along the rail. So we espouse, and will continue to, that truism, and try to factor that fact into our handicapping. In the long run, horses able to save ground will win proportionately more races than those that don't in competitively matched races.

Track conditions affect horses differently. We don't know who will take to certain types of tracks and who won't. Yet we will to continue to look at our sire data, and past horse performances, to project who can handle certain tyoes of tracks and who can't. And in the long run, we're much more right than wrong.

As far as Dutrow and Lake are concerned, the facts speak for themselves. They both win at about a 27% clip, overall. And that's great in this game. But you know what, that also means they lose 7 out of every 10 races they enter.

So we will continue to look at horses' lines as the major determinant as to how horses' will run.
Do we factor in trainer records. Of course.

I suggest you look at the ROTWs where we analyze the participants in more detail. You'll see that we do consider trainers' strengths and weaknesses. We do that in the analysis as well although we don't discuss it in detail.

As far as the nonresponse I see two posted by you--one, on lone star which I don't play so I couldn't help you and, two which said "low %trainer fastmare in 2rany advice rooky sheet user" which I didn't respond to as well. I was unclear as to who you were referring to. In general, it would help if you listed the day, track, race number, and name of the horses you're referring to. And frankly, we also sell our Belmont analysis so we're not apt to discuss Belmont races on the board, lest we short change ourself. But that doesn't mean others can't respond.

As far the 0-2-X response from Professor Sam, I'm glad you made some sense of it. If I recall, Twilightinthe City won as the favorite. He had the best line. Arpeggio as 2nd favorite came in 2nd. I tried to beat the winner but protect underneath him. I didn't use Arpeggio. Frankly, I find it difficult to put up 6-5 shots. So be it. Since I mentioned him in the analysis, I did respect him. But you go broke playing 6-5 shots over the long run. Even if it a Dutrow trainee.

Lastly, there's a winner in every race, but there isn't a bet in every race. If there are too many factors which you can't get a handle on, pass.

TGAB

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Re: pharmaco--TG kanthanka 17:24:54 05/29/01 (0)

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: : On monday F.L.jr s`horse never lifted a hoof but Dutrow and Lake both sent live ones who just missed running one two at decent prices what do t.g.experts do when faced with horses trained by above trainers ,and there like,pitted againsted horses with positive t.g. patterns,it seems to me that the analysis ignores this problem and recommends the good looking line horses which i think is a sure route to homelessness and i think this fact is maybe the reason for the outburst of the gentleman who posted a tirade on the 0/2/x ? though the injecting of speed may not of helped him in expressing his views in a tranquill manner but the point being what looks good in the classroom does not always transfer into profits in the real world so i think we should all try and discuss these handicapping problems,such as i previous posted and received not one reply.I asked what is one to do when a trainers record is poor but the line is strong . : : TG--On Monday, FL Jr's horse ran in the 6th race. The Dutrow, Lake combo clicked for 1-3 in the 7th race. So Jr's horse did not race against the duo. Certainly what looks good in the classroom doesn't always translate on the track. : There are random factors involved that we can't control. For instance some horses don't like to run on the rail for whatever reason, idiosyncracy, yet the shortest distance in a race is along the rail. So we espouse, and will continue to, that truism, and try to factor that fact into our handicapping. In the long run, horses able to save ground will win proportionately more races than those that don't in competitively matched races. : Track conditions affect horses differently. We don't know who will take to certain types of tracks and who won't. Yet we will to continue to look at our sire data, and past horse performances, to project who can handle certain tyoes of tracks and who can't. And in the long run, we're much more right than wrong. : As far as Dutrow and Lake are concerned, the facts speak for themselves. They both win at about a 27% clip, overall. And that's great in this game. But you know what, that also means they lose 7 out of every 10 races they enter. : So we will continue to look at horses' lines as the major determinant as to how horses' will run. : Do we factor in trainer records. Of course. : I suggest you look at the ROTWs where we analyze the participants in more detail. You'll see that we do consider trainers' strengths and weaknesses. We do that in the analysis as well although we don't discuss it in detail. : As far as the nonresponse I see two posted by you--one, on lone star which I don't play so I couldn't help you and, two which said "low %trainer fastmare in 2rany advice rooky sheet user" which I didn't respond to as well. I was unclear as to who you were referring to. In general, it would help if you listed the day, track, race number, and name of the horses you're referring to. And frankly, we also sell our Belmont analysis so we're not apt to discuss Belmont races on the board, lest we short change ourself. But that doesn't mean others can't respond. : As far the 0-2-X response from Professor Sam, I'm glad you made some sense of it. If I recall, Twilightinthe City won as the favorite. He had the best line. Arpeggio as 2nd favorite came in 2nd. I tried to beat the winner but protect underneath him. I didn't use Arpeggio. Frankly, I find it difficult to put up 6-5 shots. So be it. Since I mentioned him in the analysis, I did respect him. But you go broke playing 6-5 shots over the long run. Even if it a Dutrow trainee. : Lastly, there's a winner in every race, but there isn't a bet in every race. If there are too many factors which you can't get a handle on, pass. : TGAB :

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