Re: #'s and class

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Posted by HP on September 13, 1999 at 11:14:18:

In Reply to: Re: #'s and class posted by Tony on September 13, 1999 at 10:09:25:

: : I'm just wondering how this will help you bet. It may indeed help you 'spot' a horse (decide whether to run in a stake or an allowance), but how will this help you play? You get the sheets, you look at the race, the end. For example, if they tell you 'par' for 6 furlong NW1 is a '10', how does this help you? You still need to look at the horses in the race to determine your play, right? I'm just curious as to how these pars would help, since you will still have to do everything you are doing now. If anything, TG demonstrates time and time again that class handicapping is old hat. You can cash nice tickets on horses 'stepping up' since people just won't believe that the horse can move up, but you have the data to know that the horse is fast enough and CAN win that allowance stepping up from MSW. If you are going to rely on par times, you might as well go back to the racing form.

: It helps identify a weak field and therefore a weak race. The winner of the race may have run a top or good number due to the inferior (sub par) quality of competion and his number may look better than it is. I agree horses can and do step up in class and win, this is the whole premise of the condition structure at a track. Once a horse wins it must face tougher competiition (at least in theory) Andy Beyer figured that out quite a few years ago, which explains his earlier sucess. It is my experience a horse can a does run better numbers against subpar opponents, because the internal pressure of the race is to easy. In these cases I believe some numbers are over stated and not the true reflection of the horses ability.

Tony, I'd have to politely disagree with you here. A 15 is a 15 is a 15. You look at a race and if it looks like a few horses can run 8's and look ready to do so pattern-wise, the horse running 15's is a throwout. Why do you need par times if you have speed figures? If the horse ran a 15, that's how fast he ran. What difference does the competition make? The horse is not going to run 'faster' against inferior competition. I could see if a horse ran in a weak field, was way ahead and 'in hand' in the stretch (h? on the sheet), you could argue that he might have run a little faster if he was really pushed. But you seem to be saying that a horse could run 'faster' against weaker competition. This just isn't true. In fact, if it's a weak field, with weak 'internal pressure', the final time will be slow and the resulting figures will be 'slow'. The number can't 'look better than it is' (a 15 is a 15!) Beyer's success probably had nothing to do with the 'condition structure' at the track and everything to do with his 'speed figures' which allowed him to do precisely what TG does (though TG's numbers take more variables into account), compare horses by actual speed (how fast they run) as opposed to 'class' (what type of race they run in). Anyway, I guess we'll let the 'experts' weigh in here. Maybe I'm missing something. Regards.

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