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Posted by STEVEN on January 07, 2000 at 11:35:32:

In Reply to: Re: TRACK TO TRACK COMPARISONS posted by seabiscuit on January 07, 2000 at 10:55:01:

: : : In tomorrow's 4th race, shipper, Hugmelikeyouloveme, has paired up 19's at phila pk. She lays over this field and will probably be 8 to 5 or less. The only horse even close is Wee little lass, who ran a 20 last time from the rail. Otherwise, Hugme. is 4,5 numbers faster than anyone else, has no worse than the second best rider in the race and a live trainer. She looks like another good example of a horse that rarely runs in N. Y. to their out of town numbers. On paper it's hard to imagine this horse being worse than 2nd. We'll see.

: : After looking at the races again there is also Zora's Regal in the 5th race, who, on the numbers, should be right there. The only faster horse is Lute to boot, who is certainly eligible to bounce a little off the layoff effort. Otherwise Zora is certainly 1 or 2 numbers faster than the others. How can she not hit the board ?

: Hugmelikeyoulove could very simply back up off the pair of 19s, may not like the inner track at Aqueduct, and may not 'ship' well. Some horses travel well and some don't (like people). Three reasons why the horse may not win, and three reasons to look for alternatives at 8/5. Of course, she could win, but if she wins at 8/5, who cares? Can't make money on her at 8/5. Either you make her a 'bet against' or if you are convinced she is going to win at 8/5 you may be better off passing the race. SeaB.

you are making valid points but that is not the purpose of this exercise. There are negatives for every filly in this race. This is a handicapping decision on whaat is most probable based on the horse's numbers coming into the race.

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