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Posted by Congreve on March 07, 2000 at 19:33:50:
In Reply to: Re: Development--TG posted by Jerry B on March 07, 2000 at 15:36:06:
: : Based on your studies is development more a factor of age or number of starts? For example, lets say you had two foals by the same sire born on the same day. Would you expect a horse to be more developed with 9 career starts at November of his 2yo year, or 4 career starts at April of his 3yo year? I don't know if thats confusing, but I think I got the basic point across. Is development more a factor of racing experience or age? How does this factor is your purchase advising and handicapping?
: TG--1. Conditioning (fitness) and development are two different separate issues. Over a horse's first 2 or 3 starts a horse should run himself into shape (depending on training style--Frank Brothers and Elliot Walden train differently), and run whatever his top is at that point (age). Over a period of time a horse will normally develop , which is not a function of number of starts, unless over racing causes injuries that set him back.
: 2. I use a little of everything in advising, which is of course based on handicapping. But in terms you mention, I look to see how "serious" the previous efforts were--the degree to which the horse was knocked out by previous tops, etc. The basic TG ideas apply, which in this case means compare good races to good races, bad efforts to each other, and time between tops each time. (This is covered in the intro kit found on this site--seminar.)
: In the case of Elite Mercedes and Victory Gallop, neither bounced as a 2 year old, and both got down to single digits. That led me to believe they had more development in them, and since they were already pretty fast.... TGJB
If a 2 year old has Beyers that improve lets say for 5 straight starts can we assume that the improvement in beyers are equal to the improvement on the sheets.
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