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Posted by TGJB on April 22, 2000 at 14:16:43:

In Reply to: Re: ANXIOUS ANTICIPATION posted by Lsheker on April 21, 2000 at 16:14:43:

: Well, yes. I believe it. He ran a nice race in the Santa Catalina - impressive but not incredibly fast. It certainly looked like he would move forward significantly off of that race, which he did.

: As for Red Bullet and Aptitude, they both seemed to improve off the Gotham by a few lengths. I thought the quality of the Gotham was comparable to the quality of the Santa Catalina, so if RB and APTITUDE improved 3 lengths, then FuPeg would have to improve a lot to beat them by 4.5 lengths going away. I realize you disagree, but I certainly think that that much improvement was possible - especially for such a lightly raced, talented horse like FuPeg. Of course, if the Gotham was overrated relative to the Santa Catalina, then your numbers would be more correct.

: : TG--He went forward a couple of points. My question is this--does anyone really believe the rag numbers on this horse? Do they really believe his Wood was about 8 lengths better than his California races? That without improvement he would have been crushed in the Wood, finishing 4th? Wow. TGJB

TGJB: The problem is not that the Gotham was overrated, but that the Wood was, by Ragozin, presumably because they didn't know (or ignored) the fact the track was sealed early in the card, and opened just before the Wood and it was showery. It looks like they tried to tie it to the other two turn race (Lemon Drop Kid) and therefore gave a whole bunch of horses, enormous new tops. Because if you look at that race by itself you would never give them those numbers. TGJB.

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