Using figs to analyze Derby
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Posted by Grouse on April 24, 2000 at 21:35:24:
Here is my approach. Take the last two numbers for each horse and add them together. Then take the last three and add them together. Throw out any horse that has made a 3pt+ move during any of those 3 races. Don't include obvious race throwouts (Real Quiets 18 in slop) and don't go so far back for 3 races that you are into 2 yr old figs.
If you get rid of the extreme bounce candidates (First American, Skip Away, Unbrid Song, Talkin Man), you would have been led to Menifee last yr, Real Quiet before, 97 was a little murky and very evenly matched, and you probably would have come up with Grindstone and Thunder Gulch the year before. Granted, you would have thrown out Charismatic last year, but so did everyone and their brother. Betting place on these horses would have yielded a nice return.
So what does that mean this year? The Deputy. He is exactly the same as FP going back 3 races and slightly better over the last 2. If for some reason JB is slightly off with this variant stuff and FPs figure should be lower (1+), he would become a bounce candidate having improved 3 pts off his last. Plus, The Deputy has had a week longer for rest.
OPM made a great point that horses running 5s or better going into the derby rarely improve on derby day. I love the Deputy for the following wagers...
X to win, 2X to place, 3X to show
In exactas with FPeg, High Yield and Cpt Steve
In tris with the above for first and second, add Snuck In and Anees for third.
Draw could make a difference...
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