Re: BELMONT--TG Belmont Numbers II

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Posted by Marc on June 20, 2000 at 07:42:26:

In Reply to: Re: BELMONT--TG Belmont Numbers II posted by Jerry B on June 20, 2000 at 07:11:11:

: TG--Briefly--we had Aptitude looking much better going into the Derby (both Friedman and I went on record), and he ran well. We had him looking good going into the Belmont, and he ran well (paired up).

Obviously, the numbers disagree profoundly on whether Aptitude did indeed pair up in Belmont. Ragozin has him running much, much slower than he did in his two previous starts. Whether they're right or wrong, I suspect it might have a bit to do with just how slow they saw the starter allowance horses coming into that race-- the winner had never run better than a Ragozin 10, if memory serves...

:Unshaded, however, went in as the 2nd fastest horse. If we are right, both about his Lexington and Belmont numbers, he will be strong going forward.

He's a tough call on The Sheets. A 2-yr-old top of a 13, but that was sprinting. 8 points of development (a 5 in the Peter Pan) might mean the end of the line, but with an Unbridled, I try not to make too much out of a 2-yr-old top sprinting. Another couple points forward on Ragozin's numbers to win the Travers, or at least be close? It would make sense, yeah. So I'm not sure what his success would "prove" about either set of figures...

:It will be interesting to watch and compare, which is all we ask

So that you can offer overly-simplistic sales pitches for your numbers?

:all the "cosmetic" stuff is crap. I advise people spending serious money to buy horses and I use the figures to do it. My ability to do future business depends on the success of these recommendations. Do you really think I'm going to screw with that for "cosmetic" reasons, even if I was morally bankrupt enough to do it to betting customers? TGJB

Who knows. Maybe. Perhaps your customers are more likely to purchase horses with cleaner lines, and while your numbers may be in the right ballpark, it may help your business to have the mind-boggling amount of pair-ups I see on your numbers...

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