Re: sport stat--TG II


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Posted by TGJB on December 20, 2000 at 13:32:51:

In Reply to: Re: sport stat--TG II posted by jdub on December 19, 2000 at 21:26:00:

: : : : : : : : Hey Jerry,

: : : : : : : : Are you going to do another direct comparison with
: : : : : : : : SPORT STAT where all the speed figure outfits go head to head ?

: : : : : : : : chuck

: : : : : : : TG--Us, Ragozin and several others sent data daily for 6 months to Jim Bayle (Sportstat) so that he could run the studies. A couple of months ago he sent us all a letter saying that he decided not to run the studies because he was too busy betting. I'm not kidding. There were some extremely pissed off people. I'm guessing that Ragozin was not among them, but maybe I'm wrong. TGJB

: : : : : :
: : : : : : So you gave this guy free stuff for 6 months and then he decided to bag it ? only in america....

: : : : : JERRY, exactly how are any comparisons done with the different figure providers? Do the people doing the studies use the horse with the best last race number or best number of last three races or some type of average or what? If it is compared in this manner or something similar, do you agree with that process or do you have a different opinion as to how it should be done. The studies may or may not treat everyone fairly,I don't know, I have not seen any results before. I am just curious and would be interested in any comments and very interested in any previous results of any prior studies and how they were done. See ya, jdub.

: : : : TG II--See Alydar? We've livened things up wothout Plever.

: : : : 1. I read Friedman's post on their site, Theoriginal study took place about 7 years ago, covering a few tracks, over a short period. Regozin came out better than we did. Jim Bayle (Sportstat) said it was not a statistically significant sampling, which is why he wanted to do it again. The survey was to include Ragozin, Thoro-Graph, both and couple of others, on 10 circuits, for 6 months. When Ragozin accepted Bayle's invitation, he told Bayle that everyone in his office (which presumably includes the pompous Francophile) told him not to do it, but he (Ragozin) wanted to do it anyway. Ergo my comment.

: : : : 2. There were suppose to be a lot of different studies--win % and ROI based on best last number, best of last 10, best of last 3, etc. The one I suggested was taking the last 3, throwing out the worst one, and averaging the last 2. I would have loved to have seen that one.

: : : : 3. Putting together a study like this involves getting a credible outfit with computers, and getting everyone to send data daily for 6 months, and breaking it down. If you know a way to get this done let me know. Since Friedman was as pissed off as the rest of us, he obviously will be glad to participate. And while we are on the subject, I will extend my challenge (again) to engage him in a handicapping contest, under conditions far to both of us (limited number of races daily/weekly, long period of time). I'm not holding my breath. TGJB

: : : Jerry,

: : : Why can't the racing form do this survey ?

: : : Chuck

: : For starters, they have a vested interest (Beyer). They were interested in hosting a TG/Rag handicapping contest on their site, though. Ask Friedman whether he'll participate, and if so, I'll see whether DRF still will.
: : Incidentally, My post should have read "Ragozin, Thoro-Graph, Beyer, and a couple of others." Also "taking the last 3, throwing out the worst one, and averaging the other 2." TGJB

: JERRY, thanks for explaination of how the studies are done...interesting. I was surprised there is no individual analysis involved but I realize the problems with time constraints and such. Obviously TG would fair even better if that was the case. It's good news to me and all of TG'S customers that you have total confidence in your figures alone that they would stand up to the competition on their own merit. Without incorporating patterns, trainers, weight, and distance into the study, how much would using raw numbers alone (best 2/3 ) affect your "normal" win % and roi? Have you or TG ever done any studies yourselves? See ya, jdub.

Haven't done them, no idea. tgjb


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