Re: Narrowing the scope of True Tops ?--TG II
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Posted by marc2win on December 22, 2000 at 01:15:05:
In Reply to: Re: Narrowing the scope of True Tops ?--TG II posted by TGAB on December 21, 2000 at 21:09:08:
I didn't think Haitian Vacation 11-1/4 should have been viewed as a top for the following reasons:
1. It was on the slop. She shows 2 races both at or beyond today's distance on fast tracks.
2. Looking at the limited sample of Petionville offspring they appear to relish the off going.
3. Eliminating the two off track races and the lost rider debut that left 2 efforts: one being the 14-1/4 at today's distance - @ one turn and the other being the 9f's 14-1/2 around 2 turns.
4. Either of those efforts. The one-turn, 8.5 furlong 14-1/4 on a fast track or the two-turn 9.0 furlong 14-1/2 also on a fast track must be considered closer to today's conditions than the one-turn effort on an off track at a shorter distance.
5. The 11-1/4 was @ 8.0. From the limited sample of Petionville foals the TGI index is almost the same 19-1/2 and 19-1/4. This is not the case with other first year sires such as Honour and Glory or Hennessy or even a horse with limited data such as Rhythm. If anything his TGI for 1 mile and over should be significatly lower like these other sires.
6. The CD surface explains the 22. Off efforts @ Keeneland and Churchill Downs are infamous. Wet or not. Skip Away, Lemon Drop Kid.
So, that's why I think either of Haitian Vacation's 14's should be viewed as her top rather than the 11-1/4 run around one-turn on a sloppy track.
A sample of Breeders Cup entrants that ran efforts according to my data shows not only do the majority of the horses react to that stress they make bad bets next out. Spain for example. Horses that fail to show up on Breeders Cup day tend to fire next out. Dollar Bill for example this year and Captain Steve last year in the HP Futurity.
Thanks again for answering my questions and I hope I've answered yours.
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