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Posted by bh on December 24, 2000 at 23:45:09:
In Reply to: Re: Gravesend posted by OPM on December 23, 2000 at 00:32:29:
: : I am very disappointed in your review for the Gravesend. YOu have overlooked two key variables:
: : a horse's previous perf over the inner dirt track and the power of Scott Lake. If you don't know it, the inner dirt track is a unique surface that is not liked by many horses. A horse can be in good form and run very poorly once he sets foot on the inner dirt. It is a winterized track that is quite different than Belmont or the main track at Aqueduct. I believe that you are quite negligent if you don't factor in, to some degree, a horse's prior numbers on this surface.
: : The power of Lake: you are greatly overlooking the fact that Scott Lake is now training Balancethebudget. The Rag's guys say that Lake is good for a 4 point move on most of the horses he gets in his care. Schosberg is a very good trainer but he ain't no Scott Lake. Go back and check your number's for Watchman's Warning. Compare them to before and after Lake. I believe that the 12 post for "Budget"
: : is going to be tough to overcome, but the horse will run a big race and will move forward to a top on the inner dirt which could be good enough to win the race.
: : Handicapping is more than the numbers itself; you must consider potential factors that might influence a horse's upcoming perf.
: : Ciao,
: : Anthony
: Sorry, on second thought I am going to play exciting story and appealing danger with say florida sandy. think exciting story is the best chance here. small to mod play depends on the odds.
Sounds like you're alittle bias when it comes to Lake.
Aren't you an owner of some of his horses?
No matter what the Lake factor, it is hard to overcome the 12 hole while having 3 or 4 speed horses in the race to the inside of him.
Just like you said, handicapping is more than just numbers. You must figure how the race is going to set up. This is why I thought this horse was a NO PLAY. The race set up for a closer.
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