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Posted by nunzio on January 25, 2001 at 20:46:40:
In Reply to: Re: GP posted by Alydar in California on January 25, 2001 at 17:03:12:
: : : : : : : : as is the usual case at GP, class always tells,
: : : : : : : : there have been very few winners that have
: : : : : : : : been somewhat suspect on class. the crowd down
: : : : : : : : there continually gets fooled by betting horses that haven't
: : : : : : : : competed in tougher races.
: : : : : : : Please define "class". Please define "always tells". Please define "tougher races". Thanks in advance.
: : : : : : horses that run at lesser circuits show up
: : : : : : and meet higher quality horses and its shows
: : : : : : up in their performance (ie a 10,000 claimer at MED
: : : : : : hardly is worth that at GP). the pace is typically
: : : : : : more contested and quicker eventually resulting in
: : : : : : these lesser animals spitting it out.
: : : : : Differences in circuits should be reflected in the figures, making class analysis at best redundant. I am confused by what you wrote about faster fractions hurting horses from inferior circuits. How does this apply to horses who come from off the pace (the majority of horses)? Also, if class, which you didn't define, affects pace and thereby harms the performances of lower class horses, lower class horses who ship to tougher circuits will earn worse figures. A good figure-maker will surely notice this effect and adjust for it--even if he is too stubborn to identify pace as the cause. One last point: If pace is important, which I won't dispute, why make class an intermediary? Why not look directly at pace? Devotion to class leads to circle-squaring futility.
: : : : It seems to me that you are fixated on making
: : : : these bold assertions that class is better
: : : : off being swept under the rug. Since this
: : : : is supposed to be a place where we can all learn
: : : : I will again try & illustrate my point regrading class.
: : : : Many a dat at Monmouth Park, it can be seen that high
: : : : priced claimers or allowance horses run the same final
: : : : time as a stakes event. Asside from a large amount of ground loss
: : : : or dynamic track speed, how can you explain why this same claiming winner if
: : : : rediiculously spotted against thoese same takes horses
: : : : would get its head handed to it.
: : : : PACE & CLASS, thats why. And I don't think that
: : : : you can just look at a figure from a good figure maker
: : : : and know that class is 100% inherent in the figure.
: : : : CHEAP horse run fast races all the time,
: : : : especially when they have their own way.
: : : : Thinking that they will repeat that against
: : : : quality competition is absurd.
: : : I haven't been sweeping class "under the rug". Quite the contrary, I have been trying--unsuccessfully--to get you to define "class". A proposition with undefined terms is unverifiable and for that reason alone suspect--if not worthless. Nor am I "fixated" on making "bold assertions". I am fixated on why you haven't answered my questions about your bold assertions. Please bear with me: 1: Most horses who step up in class will lose. Most horses who drop in class will lose. Most horses lose, period. When claimers are put into stakes, it's usually because they have just run a big race. They are prime candidates to bounce--regardless of the class level at which they run. 2: Please don't make bold assertions if you aren't prepared to answer questions or define terms. 3: Your respect for pace redeems you, nunzio. If you continue to study it, I am confident you will find that you have been attributing to class what you should have been attributing to pace.
: : CLASS is better described as where you've been,
: : where you are going, how you got there, and how
: : much adversity you've overcome to get there.
: : Many times at lesser circuits, the race is over
: : less than half way thru because after fighting
: : for 3/8's of a mile their heart gets the best of them.
: : races where very little activity takes place
: : are weak, unless of course a speed horse just runs away from them.
: : i hope this better answers the class question.
: : ps the racing at SA has gone W A Y downhill,
: : 5 horse fields don't cut it
: You are an elusive target, nunzio. By your definition, class encompasses everything and nothing. Class may tell all, but you tell nothing. If class is important, why do you have to marry it to pace and trips when you are challenged? I'm beginning to think you consider class to be a composite of all the factors you think are important. I prefer the definition of "class" that Vladimir Cerin (an excellent trainer and handicapper in CA) gave: He pointed to a horse's Thoro-Graph numbers and said "These are class." He had just won the Hollywood Gold Cup with a claimer.
Alydar, I will let you have the last word.
Just realize that A SPEED FIGURE is NOT class.
Class is much more than a number can quantify.
- Re: GP Alydar in California 10:54:13 01/26/01
- Re: GP nunzio 01:22:40 01/27/01
- Re: GP Alydar in California 18:00:40 01/27/01
- Re: GP nunzio 19:50:21 01/27/01
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