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Posted by OPM on February 03, 2001 at 02:59:58:
In Reply to: Re: ROTW-Donn posted by HP on February 03, 2001 at 01:51:56:
: : Interesting race. TG is right that anyone can win. I'm looking to get rid of the shorter prices since I don't mind losing here if the horse I leave out pays $7 to win.
: : Al the Great - 2 looks likely here and given the rail and early speed it might stand up. Have to use him.
: : Gander - 3 - too slow.
: : Capt. Steve - Tough call. Will close and lose ground, may be disadvantaged at GP (Baffert 0/12 at GP). Iffy and probably too short a price.
: : Tempest Fugit - In light fast enough and should be a price.
: : Noble Ruler - Has probably done all he can. A pain to throw out as he will be a price.
: : Pleasant Breeze - The top off the layoff is a negative to me and will be short price.
: : North East Bound - Grass career cuts two ways, he hasn't been as 'beat up' but he may be a little short on dirt. Like the odds.
: : Sir Bear - I'd like him a little better if this were a mile.
: : I think Tempest Fugit and North East Bound are the value. I'm going to use Noble Ruler a little since if HE beats me at a price I will be pissed. I'm going to box them with A the Great. If I play tris I'm going to use Sir Bear and Capt. Steve in the third spot. Good luck to all. HP
: To hell with it, I'm tossing Noble Ruler (he's got to run a new top at a distance he hasn't covered - too much to do), Sir Bear (one furlong too many against these) and Captain Steve (price too short and this is too much money to play into a race where two favorites could come in and gunk up the tri). I'll just box Al, N.E. Bound and Tempest Fugit. I think Al is the most likely winner, all things considered, so I may double up with him on top and make small win bets on the other two instead of plowing heavy into the tri. Would love to hear from others as figuring out the play is always so much harder for me than the handicapping. HP
I totally disagree with your opinion on Noble Ruler. This horse is only 4, repeated his top right away, gets weight and his odds are great. His running style is the problem but he is slow so he should be last and on the rail on the first turn and then hopefully Davis will manage him well on the second. I can't disagree with you on Albert except for the odds. Pleasant breez might bounce or be wide but he still has better odds. steve is just too low odds. Fugit line is too choppy for me. Gander is the ? here since the odds are good. I will box Ruler, albert, breeze and gander. with strong wp on Ruler. Good luck
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