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Posted by WRT on March 27, 2001 at 00:14:32:
In Reply to: Re: Bounces--TG posted by TGJB on March 26, 2001 at 02:05:06:
: : I enjoy the Race of the Week analysis each week. In particular, I'm learning to consider horses that previously I would have tossed. Halo's Stride in yesterday's Spiral is a horse I wouldn't have considered for any of it had I not read your race review.
: : My question, though, regards bounces. About Balto Star yesterday you said:
: : "One utterance--Boing."
: : "...he's almost certain to bounce here, and bounce high."
: : "...not enough time...(five weeks)."
: : "...the question is not whether it's (he's) going to bounce, but instead, by how much."
: : Those are strong opinions. My question is: Approximately what percentage of the time do horses bounce when your opinion is that strong? If Balto Star was such a likely bounce candidate, and instead of doing so, freaked to a new top, what does that say about the theory in general, about the majority of horses who's reads aren't as obvious?
: : Just a couple of questions from an unsophisticated Beyer player who would have normally taken the huge Beyer edge and run with it (but missed the exacta).
: TG--You are absolutely right, on March 24th, 2001, Balto Star singlehandly disproved the bounce theory. Somebody call the wire services.
: This is a game of percentages. If you bet horoses off enormous tops regularly you will go broke, especially since the public over bets horses who run well in their last start. TGJB
I agree with your premise that the public certainly over bets horses which ran well in ther last start. But in this case, don't you feel at 6 to 1 Balto Star warned a wager? In otherwords, how often does a horse with an enormous top repeat that effort and win versus the odds the public is offering.
Just another handicappers opinion.
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