2001 - a new millenium same mistakes


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Posted by fastspeed on April 13, 2001 at 00:43:09:

In Reply to: Re: Invisible Ink/ Lock????? Doubt it posted by bdhsheets on April 12, 2001 at 17:01:10:

: : I hear Invisible Ink drew the rail, and by doing so he won the Blue Grass already. The 1 1/2 in January can easily cook a horse, but he has only ran ONCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS DATING BACK TO THE 1 1/2!! Inky galloped out strongly after the wire in his Florida Derby effort, so the distance should suit him. Pletcher has been notorious for getting big efforts out of young horses. Though he didn't win the Blue Grass last year, his horse ran the best #, and he also ran 1-2 in the Ark.
: Derby. It's to bad he's coupled, because this horse would have been a 10-1 lock!!!

: ##############################################

: I agree with JB's premise that 3yo's are running faster numbers than ever before, whether it's through chemistry (to some extent it is with anebolic steroids), better nutrition and training techniques. The fact of the matter is that we as handicappers are stumbling into a new era without a full understanding what these fast numbers mean.

: Older horses can put together a string of 1's & 2's perhaps a couple of "0's" tossed in, but once you reach the minus numbers, super efforts, then permanent physical damage starts to occur. Of course you have a few that will string a few negative numbers together, but how many return to this level again?

: Which leads us back to the 3yo's. At what point does permanent damage begin to happen to young developing horses? The hairline stress fractures that aren't noticeable until it's too late. The big one number 3yo's are a dime a dozen. Most never return to that level.

: The 10 point development that Invisble Ink had from 11-30 to 1-30 to a 1.5 leads me to believe that Inky might be one of these Pletcher onetime big number horses. I'll pass on this one thanks,
: AP Valentine seems to be sitting on a big one with a nice 1/2 point top off his 2yo best to a 5.0, Millenium Wind with a pair up of 5.5's might be a price play here for the upset, no way will he be near the 4-1 morning line.

: May they all come home safely!

: Regards,

: bdhsheets

**************

Firstly, don't you just love those Neardanthal betting practices like coupling horses when it makes no sense (I read they are going to make an exception for the Derby)- US racing is advanced in some ways but pathetic in others.

Secondly, I find the whole "new era" concept quite interesting (didn't someone say that about the NASDAQ at some time?). I agree racehorses these days are a whole different ball game (e.g. only three horses with dosage over 4 have ever won the derby yet two of them are in the last 3 years) which does make all this "derby profile" stuff quite scary.
I wouldn't be surprised if we find that improving 3 year olds are year by year moving towards contradicting bounce theories and holding their form a little longer (or better). We'll see - as a Monarchos person I hope his Florida effort does not take it's toll and I would love Ink to run a big race (and I too would bet him if he were uncoupled).
Then again they may all be over the top by the time the Preakness is around so we can make fortunes on Burning Roma !!

P.S. It's good to see that some things never change - do I see an overhyped Derby favorite who's beaten sprinters on west coast dog tracks ?





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