Re: Hosses who have not gone back!

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Posted by HP on April 26, 2001 at 14:34:22:

In Reply to: Re: Hosses who have not gone back! posted by Point Given bet down to 6/5 with William Hill on April 26, 2001 at 14:08:32:

: : : : : In this years Derby we've got 5 horses, countem 5, who have yet to go backward.

: : : : : Fifty Stars: Started out with a 12 at AP, largest top only 2.5 pts at HOU. Just paired up a 5.50 at Lone Star, a strong indicator of better things to come very soon, just a tad bit slow but an explosive line nevertheless.

: : : : : Express Tour: Started out with a 13 at CRC, finished US career pairing up 5's at CRC, first one a 4.75 top; in the dessert at UAE a 3pt top to a 2.0 Question is lack of experience and foundation, might go early with Balto.

: : : : : Congaree: Started out with a 13.5 at DMR, injuries forced him to the sidelines. Came out smokin' with a 7.75 top to a 5.75 kept going well putting up a 1.25 in the Wood. Lack of experience might sink this one, buuuut Baffy thought Congaree was the best 2yo he had.

: : : : : Point Given: Started out stringing together three 10s,
: : : : : working down to a 3.5 at Holly. A 2.0 then a 0.5 in SA Derby. Largest top only a 3 pt move. Great looking horse will be a well deserved in the 5/2 range.

: : : : : Millenium Wind: Started out with a 7.0 at Holly, paired up 5.5's before launching an incredible BG number a minus -0.25. This 5.75 top may have cooked him, we'll find out soon enough. He ran his Derby too early.

: : : : : Another conceptual never gone back hoss, besides Balto, is Jamaican Rum. His only backward move was at SA on the turf a 9.5 to a -12.0. He paired up 6.0's afterward and powered to a 5pt top a 1.0 in the Arkee Derby. Another who ran a Derby winning efort a few weeks too soon?

: : : : : Of course all of them can't keep going forward.........

: : : : : Regards,

: : : : : bdhsheets

: : : : This shows how solid Point Given is. Since he ran the 3.5 as a 2yo, he's only moved forward 3 points, so despite the big fig in the SA Derby, his development seems gradual enough that he could pair this up. The others look more likely to regress off big figs that represent much bigger forward moves in the context of their overall development. In general I don't like the horses that have run too fast as 2yos (posted about this) but this one seems well within himself and certainly won't suffer from overwork. 5/2 would be good and 3/1 great. HP

: : :
: : : *** With all due respect i must disagree with your odds
: : : assessment . If you take 5-2 or 3-1 , then you are
: : : making PG about 8-5 true odds to win . The nature of the race
: : : given its field size usually results in compromising traffic
: : : problems on the turns . I believe that you are therefore overestimating
: : : his chances and are taking the worst of it at those prices.
: : : As it has been pointed out here , there are alot of fast 3YO's
: : : in this crop , and i believe the best percentage play will be to
: : : shop for a price amongst the "best of the rest" . bj

: : I can't disagree with this. I don't make it a habit of playing 5/2 or 3/1's very often, but I think he's the most likely winner and I'm going to shoot for value in the exotics keying him on top. I've noticed in the Derby and other big fields you sometimes get unexpected value in the exactas and tris, especially combining some of the shorter priced horses. That said, I don't expect to make a megabucks investment here. Appreciate the feedback. HP

: **********

: As William Hill is betting similar over-rounds as CD will, you'll need a much shorter price on the other main contenders (Currently Congaree 5/1, Balto 13/2, Millenium 7/1, Monarchos 8/1, Express 10/1, Dollar 14/1) if PG is going to be anywhere near 3/1 starting from 6/5.

: I still think there is win value outside of PG, as he has started the last 3 races at odds-on so this is his first serious test in a while. However I agree he is solid (if underpriced), so trying to get a big pay-out with him on top and some of the high priced closers in 3rd in the tri seems legitimate.

You're right and I'm guessing PG will be lucky to float up to 5/2. I would guess Millenium is likely to come down a bit. Hopefully the hype machine will start up on some of the others and enough guys will shoot for the longshots to get PG up a bit. HP

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