Re: To JRE Re: Point Given in the big one.
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Posted by JRE on April 30, 2001 at 08:03:53:
In Reply to: To JRE Re: Point Given in the big one. posted by MAB on April 29, 2001 at 09:18:02:
: : : I agree that its risky to put too much stock in PG beating an ailing Crafty Prospector at 9 furlongs. Crafty CT is a helluva horse, but that wasnt Crafty CT in the SA Derby. Now PG may win the Derby by 10 lengths but I don't buy that he's the best favorite since the Bid. This is a tough field and while he's probably the most proven he hasn't faced Congaree, Monarchos, Express Tour or Balto Star yet. When was the last time the Derby favorite hadn't faced any of his chief competition? Been a while... Anyway, I got my future book on Congaree, so I think I'll just sit back, watch what should be a great race and hope Congaree is within two of the lead when they hit the top of the lane...
: : ----------------------------
: : Its not the competition that causes GREAT numbers,
: : i.e. a great number gained in a low allowance
: : race or a great number gained by a lone-front-
: : runner effort, CANNOT ever diminish the GREAT
: : effort. If the horse remains healthy and the
: : Great effort's proximity to other Great efforts
: : has provided enough "recovery time," the horse
: : can achieve the Great effort again, despite the
: : company of the field that the horse is now facing.
: : Point Given has one more good effort left, and it
: : will possibly help him win the KY Derby, but it is
: : doubtful to me that the horse has ANY chance to
: : win the Triple Crown.
: : Congaree's last two efforts are probably
: : the "best" that we will see from him until
: : August, and Monarchos recent Great efforts
: : will also diminish any further forward movement
: : for the Derby and the remainder of the Triple
: : Crown.
: : I believe that Balto Star has one more good effort
: : left (I read the Sheets a little different than
: : most), and Express Tour is the only other
: : interesting horse of the group that you mentioned
: : (a slight improvement could make him competitive
: : with Point Given).
: : Good Luck to All!!
: I am curious as to your statement that you read the sheets a little differently than most. You believe Balto Star has another good one in him. I'm curious as to your reasoning--and how you read the sheets differently. I'm just a student of the sheets and am trying to learn more.
We are all students here. I believe that Point
Given has one more "Great Effort," while Balto
Star "could" have one more "Good Effort," but one
has to consider the fact that he has produced two
Great Efforts in a row WITHOUT the necessary
2 year-old production (no numbers as a two year-
old anywhere near his two most recent tops), so
most sheet players would say, "BOUNCE," and the
only difference with them is how I view the '3'
that Balto received on Feb. 18 at AQU (my own
unique perspective suggests that this number
should have been faster).
Everyone on this site has different perspectives,
and in some ways, we all feed against each other,
ever hoping for that elusive "unknown," yet power-
ful double digit longshot that no one else could
have seen BEFORE the winning race.
If you find a little bit of truth from many of the
sources on this sight, and if you keep believing
in the sheet perspective, you'll do fine.
Knowing the difference between what is "truth,"
and the shades of "old-school" handicapping myths
(angels based mostly on CLASS), will determine
your future success using the TG sheets.
Stop gambling for at least a year (as I did),
and study, study, study with patience and clarity,
and keep coming only to this site, and you will
do well (remember to utilize the ROTW archives
and the daily "day after" sheets--both are offered for free on this sight).
Continued Good Luck to you...
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