Re: The Big One

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Posted by HP on May 03, 2001 at 16:12:05:

In Reply to: Re: The Big One posted by rxp on May 03, 2001 at 15:05:04:

: : Overall not a great betting race as far as I can see with a legit favorite. Will probably make tickets with PG on top and others with PG, Express Tour and perhaps the Inkster on top and others under. Will also have to make tickets without Congaree, as tickets with PG and Congaree on them will be break-even at best.

: : Horses to use
: : Fifty Stars - Good pattern to move up a bit, but probably not enough to win, pace scenario fits, price, like him in the 2 and 3 spots on the ticket.
: : Express Tour - Hasn't done anything wrong and if he pairs he fits, may be a little light condition-wise but the price should be right. That 2yo line is very good as opposed to Congaree and Invisible Ink. Will use him on top with PG.
: : Congaree - Have to use him but would mark him down a peg at the short price, looks better in the 2 or 3 slot.
: : Invisible Ink - Nice pattern, fast enough, price. Can't decide whether to put him on top but at the price it probably makes sense.
: : Point Given - Pair would probably win even with some ground loss and could do it with a slight bounce as well. SA Derby route with extra week off lessens chance of a bounce, price could be helped by 'bad' post. Stevens a big plus.

: : Horses to lose
: : Songandaprayer - will bounce again.
: : Millenium Wind - 6 point top and 3 weeks off say 'bounce'.
: : Balto Star - faces uphill pace scenario, make him 99% to bounce off two zeros.
: : Dollar Bill - pair is probably not good enough given ground loss and can't see why he will get better here.

: : Pains
: : Monarchos - pace suits but will probably use him in 3 slot only, since he looks 50/50 to pair (which might make 3rd) or x out.
: : Jamaican Rum - Ditto and another bounce candidate. Can back up a bit and still get a share.

: : The rest are not worthy of comment.

: : Good luck to all. HP

: HP,

: Good analysis.
: My preliminary thoughts are toss 50 Stars. Would prefer $ Bill, Jamaican Rum and AP to Invisible Ink. AP is very talented but his full line suggests he is protecting himself after bucking shins in the BC; wouldn't bet him until he runs a break thru #. Agree that Songandaprayer, Balto, Milennium, and Monarchos are likely bounce candidates with the latter the better play of this foursome as he could still get 3rd. Express Tour offers the most value. Congaree ran the best race of all of them in the Wood and Baffert thinks he's going forward on Saturday. PG has a healthy and very fast line but has to improve to beat his stablemate or see that one bounce; moreover he's likely to check at least once in this race. Preliminary decision is to key Express Tour over and under Baffert duo; small win bet on Express and consider healthy win bet on Congaree @ 4-1 or higher.
: Rick

That's a nice tight play. I'm looking to give myself a few more shots at the bomb if PG backs up even a bit. It occurs to me that Dollar Bill is going to be shorter than he should with Day up. Thanks for the feedback. HP

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