Rum for the roses?


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Posted by Derby1592 on May 04, 2001 at 02:33:56:

In Reply to: Re: The Big One posted by HP on May 03, 2001 at 14:56:15:

: : : Overall not a great betting race as far as I can see with a legit favorite. Will probably make tickets with PG on top and others with PG, Express Tour and perhaps the Inkster on top and others under. Will also have to make tickets without Congaree, as tickets with PG and Congaree on them will be break-even at best.

: : : Horses to use
: : : Fifty Stars - Good pattern to move up a bit, but probably not enough to win, pace scenario fits, price, like him in the 2 and 3 spots on the ticket.
: : : Express Tour - Hasn't done anything wrong and if he pairs he fits, may be a little light condition-wise but the price should be right. That 2yo line is very good as opposed to Congaree and Invisible Ink. Will use him on top with PG.
: : : Congaree - Have to use him but would mark him down a peg at the short price, looks better in the 2 or 3 slot.
: : : Invisible Ink - Nice pattern, fast enough, price. Can't decide whether to put him on top but at the price it probably makes sense.
: : : Point Given - Pair would probably win even with some ground loss and could do it with a slight bounce as well. SA Derby route with extra week off lessens chance of a bounce, price could be helped by 'bad' post. Stevens a big plus.

: : : Horses to lose
: : : Songandaprayer - will bounce again.
: : : Millenium Wind - 6 point top and 3 weeks off say 'bounce'.
: : : Balto Star - faces uphill pace scenario, make him 99% to bounce off two zeros.
: : : Dollar Bill - pair is probably not good enough given ground loss and can't see why he will get better here.

: : : Pains
: : : Monarchos - pace suits but will probably use him in 3 slot only, since he looks 50/50 to pair (which might make 3rd) or x out.
: : : Jamaican Rum - Ditto and another bounce candidate. Can back up a bit and still get a share.

: : : The rest are not worthy of comment.

: : : Good luck to all. HP

: : You are right, we pretty much agree except for Jamacain Rum. Given his last was in the slop, his fastest dirt fig is a 6. Plus I've noticed that tops in the slop tend to take more out or horses. I have no problem tossing him. But Monarchos is a real pain in the ass. I do give Dollar Bill a shot given that he hasn't had what I would consider a taxing campaign and his line and running style suggest improvement is possible.

: I'm hearing you on Jamaican Rum. On Dollar Bill I see your point on the running style but not on his line, which I figure at best gets him another 4, which would only be good enough (for third!) if he saved all the ground. Leaning towards tossing Monarchos as well. I guess Thunder Blitz falls into the 'pain' category too. The pattern is good but given his 2yo campaign I would think he was about done for now. He seems to be the 'wiseguy' horse this year and they tend to run up the track. I'm thinking this may be simpler just going with exactas as trying to fill that third spot may cost too much money (especially since the first and second betting choices are live) and I may be able to limit play to four horses that way. Thanks for the feedback and let's hope great minds think alike. HP


I agree that Jamaican Rum may bounce and he may have traffic problems but he also may be 50-1. I don't think he is any more likely to bounce than most of the other contenders with the exception of Point Given (the horse to beat) and Dollar Bill (too slow to win IMHO). Also, keep in mind that Jamaican Rum has never been in a race in which the pace, distance and racing surface have actually favored his running style (or at least gave him a fighting chance). Also keep in mind that he fits the profile of a long line of similar horses that have won or placed in the Derby and that the likely sizzling pace can only help his chances. Finally, Eddie D. has won two Derbies (only a few other jockeys in the race can make that claim) and he should be able to save ground early and is about as good as they come when it comes to sitting chilling and waiting for a hole to open up. With a little racing luck, this horse could be a big surprise.

I would certainly think twice before leaving him off my ticket.

Regarding some of the others you are considering.

Keep in mind the Express Tour has all kinds of negatives regarding breeding, running style, fitness, etc.

Also keep in mind that horses that bounce prior to the Derby seldom run well in the Derby. Thunder Gulch did it but very few other have. Monarchos and Invisible Ink are just as likely to regress as Jamaican Rum and they are coming in off slower last figures.

Finally, keep in mind that very few horses actually improve significantly in the Derby if they are already running around a 5 or lower. Fifty Stars and Dollar Bill look solid but are unlikely to move forward much and are probably too slow to do better than 3rd or 4th unless all the other faster horses fall apart.

Good luck in the Derby.

Chris



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