Re: Rum for the roses?

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Posted by Trent Thompson on May 04, 2001 at 07:35:07:

In Reply to: Rum for the roses? posted by Derby1592 on May 04, 2001 at 02:33:56:

: I agree that Jamaican Rum may bounce and he may have traffic problems but he also may be 50-1. I don't think he is any more likely to bounce than most of the other contenders with the exception of Point Given (the horse to beat) and Dollar Bill (too slow to win IMHO). Also, keep in mind that Jamaican Rum has never been in a race in which the pace, distance and racing surface have actually favored his running style (or at least gave him a fighting chance). Also keep in mind that he fits the profile of a long line of similar horses that have won or placed in the Derby and that the likely sizzling pace can only help his chances. Finally, Eddie D. has won two Derbies (only a few other jockeys in the race can make that claim) and he should be able to save ground early and is about as good as they come when it comes to sitting chilling and waiting for a hole to open up. With a little racing luck, this horse could be a big surprise.

: I would certainly think twice before leaving him off my ticket.

: Regarding some of the others you are considering.

: Keep in mind the Express Tour has all kinds of negatives regarding breeding, running style, fitness, etc.

: Also keep in mind that horses that bounce prior to the Derby seldom run well in the Derby. Thunder Gulch did it but very few other have. Monarchos and Invisible Ink are just as likely to regress as Jamaican Rum and they are coming in off slower last figures.

: Finally, keep in mind that very few horses actually improve significantly in the Derby if they are already running around a 5 or lower. Fifty Stars and Dollar Bill look solid but are unlikely to move forward much and are probably too slow to do better than 3rd or 4th unless all the other faster horses fall apart.

: Good luck in the Derby.

: Chris

Thanks for the feedback. Still violently disagree about Jamaican Rum. I have made a living at discounting abnormally good efforts in the slop, and I think this certainly qualifies as one. I stand by my original statement, JMs fastest fast dirt figure is a 6, that makes him slow in here and coming off a draining effort in the slop (which seems to affect horses conditioning greater) and short rest, he is an easy throw out.

I admit I am starting to think twice about Express Tour, there are a lot of negatives. Will have to wait and see what the odds are. RE Dollar Bill and 50 stars, I think PG will likely run between 1-2 here and with ground loss that means anyone who can get a 3 with a better trip has a shot to win. I think that is well within the realm of possibility for either DB or 50S.

I also don't think comparing Monarchos to Ink is valid. Ink has already shown that he has recovered from the 1 run earlier by making a forward move (albeit small) in his last race. I think this is a great sign. Monarchos has yet to show us that he has recovered from the 0 and his was more recent.

Last comment is for any Millenium Wind or SongP fans. Look at how poorly Keenland/Gulfstream front runners have faired in the derby lately. High Yield, Pulpit, and Skip Away come to mind. You need to show a closing style like Menifee to be competitive in the derby.

Just my thoughts, good luck to all, I am audi to head for Louisville. Anyone going to bet against Juke in the first tomorrow? Also, how bout the Woodford turf? That race is just about as tough as the derby IMHO. The slower horses are on the inside with less weight. All have a shot. Very interesting race.

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