Re: The Big One

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Posted by HP on May 04, 2001 at 10:41:03:

In Reply to: Re: The Big One posted by fastspeed on May 03, 2001 at 18:15:18:

: : : : Overall not a great betting race as far as I can see with a legit favorite. Will probably make tickets with PG on top and others with PG, Express Tour and perhaps the Inkster on top and others under. Will also have to make tickets without Congaree, as tickets with PG and Congaree on them will be break-even at best.

: : : : Horses to use
: : : : Fifty Stars - Good pattern to move up a bit, but probably not enough to win, pace scenario fits, price, like him in the 2 and 3 spots on the ticket.
: : : : Express Tour - Hasn't done anything wrong and if he pairs he fits, may be a little light condition-wise but the price should be right. That 2yo line is very good as opposed to Congaree and Invisible Ink. Will use him on top with PG.
: : : : Congaree - Have to use him but would mark him down a peg at the short price, looks better in the 2 or 3 slot.
: : : : Invisible Ink - Nice pattern, fast enough, price. Can't decide whether to put him on top but at the price it probably makes sense.
: : : : Point Given - Pair would probably win even with some ground loss and could do it with a slight bounce as well. SA Derby route with extra week off lessens chance of a bounce, price could be helped by 'bad' post. Stevens a big plus.

: : : : Horses to lose
: : : : Songandaprayer - will bounce again.
: : : : Millenium Wind - 6 point top and 3 weeks off say 'bounce'.
: : : : Balto Star - faces uphill pace scenario, make him 99% to bounce off two zeros.
: : : : Dollar Bill - pair is probably not good enough given ground loss and can't see why he will get better here.

: : : : Pains
: : : : Monarchos - pace suits but will probably use him in 3 slot only, since he looks 50/50 to pair (which might make 3rd) or x out.
: : : : Jamaican Rum - Ditto and another bounce candidate. Can back up a bit and still get a share.

: : : : The rest are not worthy of comment.

: : : : Good luck to all. HP

: : : You are right, we pretty much agree except for Jamacain Rum. Given his last was in the slop, his fastest dirt fig is a 6. Plus I've noticed that tops in the slop tend to take more out or horses. I have no problem tossing him. But Monarchos is a real pain in the ass. I do give Dollar Bill a shot given that he hasn't had what I would consider a taxing campaign and his line and running style suggest improvement is possible.

: : I'm hearing you on Jamaican Rum. On Dollar Bill I see your point on the running style but not on his line, which I figure at best gets him another 4, which would only be good enough (for third!) if he saved all the ground. Leaning towards tossing Monarchos as well. I guess Thunder Blitz falls into the 'pain' category too. The pattern is good but given his 2yo campaign I would think he was about done for now. He seems to be the 'wiseguy' horse this year and they tend to run up the track. I'm thinking this may be simpler just going with exactas as trying to fill that third spot may cost too much money (especially since the first and second betting choices are live) and I may be able to limit play to four horses that way. Thanks for the feedback and let's hope great minds think alike. HP

: *******

: Love the chat - great comments guys. Agree on the possibility of a Monarchos bounce, but if he pairs up he'll be better than 3rd - that AQU race was lengths better because of the track bias. Still cannot include the Express because the Sheikh and trainer are not here - I think they don't think he's gonna stay (dosage and Thomlison endurance look nasty).

After last night's inevitable tossing and turning, a few things have narrowed down. Thinking that the race looks like one where nobody fires his top shot. Have never seen a race with so many horses off monster tops so I think I should be looking for horses that didn't pop so big last out. Feel stronger about Ink's chances. I'm downgrading Express Tour a bit. I don't think he can win off one prep, and I think the big number off the layoff may be a negative. Won't put him on top, but he will be on a few tix. Fifty Stars looks like he is going to move up at a price, running style suits. He stays. Monarchos and Jamaican Rum are out, as is Congaree (too short considering the negatives of lack of seasoning and big one last out). Dollar Bill gets a slight upgrade, although he will be overbet, I'm going to stick him in the third spot in tris. So I'm leaning much more on Ink, Fifty Stars and Point Given. I think these three fit the 'profile' best of the ones I thought were contenders. Will be away and probably miss the race, so best to all and good luck. HP

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