Re: Adjusted Figures

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Posted by TGJB on May 08, 2001 at 18:49:46:

In Reply to: Adjusted Figures posted by Dan on May 08, 2001 at 16:19:10:

: I was glancing over an unnamed competitors website and noticed, in reviewing their Derby numbers, that for several horses they gave adjusted numbers for the number the would have earned at a mile. This raises an interesting question, for the purposes of form analysis isn't the most important thing knowing how much a given effort took out of a horse? For example, to avoid direct comparisons between competitors, lets take a hypothetical race at a flat mile. Let's say a speed horse blazes the opening 6 furlongs in 1:08, then hits a wall and staggers home in 1:38. Let's say he had the rail the whole way, and a 1:38 mile on the rail that day was worth a 10. Let's also say, and I am not trying to do accurate conversions here, that 6f in 1:08 on the rail was a 6. What did that horse run? Well, his final time was a 10, but his effort was actually a 6, and really even lower as he had to exert himself further to finish, even if it was at a snails pace he certainly didn't lose anything from the effort he'd already completed. Assuming this horse often ran 10's, if he ran back in 2 weeks, a 10 would appear to be consistant with his pattern but a 6 or lower would represent a big top and make him much more likely to bounce. Any thoughts on how to reconcile this? Thank again.

It's something that can be considered when handicapping (as I said about this years Derby quitters), but I don't like trying to quantify it. You simply don't have enough info to make figures for "races" run to a point on the track other than the finish line. TGJB

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