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Posted by Chuckles the Clown on May 19, 2001 at 09:42:08:
I must admit, I am puzzled by this race. There are several factors which may play a role in the outcome.
Firstly, I don't generally bet horses to bounce who won easily and are running in the same class. Balto-Star was probably an example of an easy winner stepping up and his bounce was playable. I'm much more hesitant to say a winner drawing off, in his class, from one crack of the whip is going to bounce. (I don't think he will.)
At Churchill, Conagree was only gotten to in the last sixteenth. At Pimlico there won't be that final sixteenth to pad a victory. So if they run the same race, its likely with a little traffic problem or a less heated pace duel by Conagree, and the Arazi colt could come out on top.
Conagree on the other hand ran the kind of race I would project a bounce upon. He battled hard and fought hard to get beaten. Theres no telling how much a drawing off winner has left in the tank, and no telling how much was taken out of Conagree, who may have been running on fumes. I have to think that effort was taxing. Point Given outworked Conagree for the Preakness, for whatever that is worth.
I'm certain Point Given will rate this time and make his run with about 3 panels to go. But as high as I was on him going into the Derby, I'm as unconvinced now. I look back at the impressive nature of his races but then I realize he beat Crafty C.T., Jamaican Rum, Millenium Wind and I Love Silver. He scored some numbers and looked good doing it. But his competition looks suspect in hindsight and now you gotta wonder was the distance a problem? Then theres that foot fungus thing and being sent out to be vetted after the Derby. He's probably gonna jump up and prove the ability I thought I saw, but from the 10 post, I'm gonna let him beat me this time.
I hear alot of people are high on Mr. John. Heck, he sold for more than A.P. Valentine as a yearling. That Lexington is almost a toss for me. Keats came back and showed poorly in the Derby. Mr. John was closing, but it wasn't a Lexington a la Charismatic and I believe it is a mistake to read the number from that race as being competitive.
But this is my angle and an angle is not the way to wager serious money and so I am reversing myself and indicating here what the substance of my bet will be. It is a class E bet for me. I rate opportunities as A thru E, with A being the highest and I bet them accordingly:
If Conagree bounces...guess who stands to assume a position of not being seriously challenged? Guess Who is not afraid of Mr. John? Of the triple crown preps Guess which prep had the most fierce competition? From that race Guess which animal most probably bounced that day? Guess what the weather figures to be in Baltimore? (If its not that weather the bet slips off the chart)
If the track is not wet or sloppy I'm going with A.P. and D.B. to fill the perfecta. (Class E on a dry track)
I cash Class E bets 5% of the time. Your odds should be 19-1. If you bet over A.P. and D.B. you need each perfecta to return at least 76 dollars. If you box with the other you need the same: 76 dollars on each perfecta.
If Conagree doesn't bounce you figure to have the top two choices run one - two..whoopty do! and you're only out ____________ Dollars.
Fill in the blank.
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