Re: Modeling the Bounce

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Posted by albert crenshaw on May 21, 2001 at 20:29:36:

In Reply to: Modeling the Bounce posted by Larry on May 21, 2001 at 20:16:26:

: I few years ago I wrote a series of articles relative to the subject of "The Bounce". They were posted on a couple of horse racing sites. I am posting the first and if there is interest I will post the remaining articles.

: I have not worked on the modeling or these articles since I wrote them. I have ideas on how to improve the concept.

: Subject: Modeling the Bounce (Part I)

: I've come across a few articles from the Journal of Applied Physiology that might help in explaining the reason for the bounce or reduction in performance. The articles are relative to modeling performance based on the quantity of training (impulse) and the
: duration of the training. The models have two components and one is relative to fatigue. I've gone through the articles and plan on trying to apply the method using past performance data of race horses.
: One point that might be of interest is a term that relates the time needed to recover from the introduction of a training stimulus before
: the effects of fatigue are dissipated. This time constant varies based on the existing conditioning level of the individual. For example if two horses had the same reduction in time from one race
: too the next then the horse that was the fast would take longer to recover from the race. We have two horse. Horse A runs 1:15 in race number one and returns to run 1:14 in his next start. He reduce his
: race time by one second out of 75 total sec from race one. If the faster Horse B ran in 1:12 and then returned in 1:11 in the next race. His recover time would be longer then Horse B. Another point of
: interest is that when a new training program is started it takes almost 50 days of training at a constant work load before performance improvements exceed the initial performance condition. However if
: the training is stopped after about two weeks the horse performance level will exceed the initial condition within the next two weeks. The performance curves show that the peak occurs around 16 days after
: continous training is halted. This time interval is similar to what some trainers do once a horse is racing fit they do very little training between races.

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