Re: Early Stab at Derby M/L (741 Views)
Posted by:
Fairmount1 (IP Logged)
Date: April 18, 2016 11:08PM
Joe B.,
Thanks for the feedback to make me look closer.
Pertinent Notes on this:
2015--the top 6 choices won their last prep before Derby. [b]EDIT: Top 7 choices actually (Mubtaahij, 7th choice).[/b]
2014--the top 3 choices won their last prep before Derby. (4th choice was Candy Boy who had a monster bet to drop from beyond 15-1 to 9.40-1 at close)
2013--the top 4 choices won their last prep before Derby.
2012--5 of the top 6 choices won last prep before Derby (Union Rags was 3rd in Fla Derby and was second choice 5.10-1 in Derby)
[i][b]In last four years, there have been 17 single digit odds horses in the Derby. All but one of them won at least one of their two previous preps. Can anyone name the one who didn't without peeking?[/b][/i]
Mor Spirit would be a bit of an anomaly in this regard as to why I think he will be double digits.
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Mor Spirit is 7-3-4-0 with losses to Airoforce at CD, then in his last two to Danzig Candy and Exaggerator. DRF's ridiculous pace symbols (which mass public will see) notes a race flow that favored Closers and an extremely favorable race flow to closers in those two defeats. Mor Spirit was 4th of 8, 5 1/2 back in SA Derby at 2nd call and was 5th of 6 at the second call in the San Felipe 6 lengths back. Note that the extremely favorable race flow to closers was the San Felipe race Danzig won on the front end......need I say more about those symbols?
His odds in his 6 starts going backwards were (as the favorite every time): $1.40-1, $1.60-1, $.70, $.70, $2.40, $.50, $1.80 (highest odds were at Churchill but still favored).
He certainly could be higher up the ladder as far as rank I will grant you but single digits seem very unlikely.
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