Re: Exaggerator - Wet/Dry (1001 Views)
Posted by:
ringato3 (IP Logged)
Date: May 02, 2016 09:30PM
Toppled,
This is not an attack post, but that is a one-dimensional read in a game that has about 27 dimensions to it. I would call it "old school sheet reading" and I am replying to this post because Exaggerator's sheet is a perfect example of what I was discussing with TGJB in my post the other day where I said you need to look at how the numbers were earned.
So, Exaggerator has 3 races this year. First a 7 furlong sprint, which may have some correlation to how he runs at 1 1/4 miles (but not a direct one). Then he goes two turns and runs an extremely strong middle half into a fast race where the winner wires. Those that look at internals and compression figs had him running faster than TG/Beyer/Rags etc. Then he goes 1 1/8 on a sloppy track where he sits dead last while you have a runaway speed horse setting a suicidal pace and he swoops by them all and draws off.
So, you have decided to zero in on the ONE factor of a wet track and call it a wet track top. Not the extreme pace that set up the race for a horse sitting dead last. Not the extra distance helping him. And not just ordinary NORMAL development for a healthy spring 3 year old (just 2 points from his 2 year old top) and this is a horse with 7 or 8 races with a healthy line having only one race where he didn't pair or go forward.
Exaggerator 3 races this also reflect the trouble with pattern reading in general. How do you analyze a pattern with races at 3 different distances, one on a sloppy track, one with an extreme race flow edge based on pace and with a race flow disadvantage based on pace.
Rob