What really complicates things this year is that all 3 have #s fast enough to either win or be major contenders in the Derby if you draw a line through their last race. Who knows how much the track conditions compromised each of their chances.

Of the 3, the one I can make the best case for is Mor Spirit (but for full disclosure, I'm biased because I have a futures bet on him). After his slow # in his sprint debut, where he ran 2nd, he ran his top in his 2nd race. Then came within a 1/4 point of that top in the San Felipe. After his 1st top he bounced 4.5 points. Or was it the sloppy track? After his latest big #, he bounced 3.25 points. Or was it the wet track again? His 2 worst numbers in routes are on wet tracks, yet he still ran 2nd each time.

Also, with futures in & an eye towards history, I did not want Mor Spirit to win the SA Derby. None of Baffert's SA Derby winners won the Kentucky Derby, while 2 of his 4 Derby winners ran in the SA Derby but didn't win. The dilemma is that neither Silver Charm nor Real Quiet bounced like Mor's SA Derby, but then track condition wasn't a factor in either case.

Without knowing the Arkansas #s, only 3 horses are as fast or faster than MO, MOR, or DC. One of these years I'll get burned, but to me Pletcher off a new top is a Derby throwout. If he wins with either Destin or Outwork, he beats me. with Pletcher's Derby history of horses coming in off significant new tops in their final prep, I'm willing to toss them. The only other horse who ran fast is Exaggerator, but his wet #s are always higher at the point of development in his career. His 1st wet race was a 4.5 point new top, he then went back 5 points in his next fast track race, then paired his top in the Delta mud. His 3yo campaign showed development with 2 races paired 1.25 points higher than his 2YO top, then ran his new top, an improvement of 1.75 points on the wet SA surface. If it rains in Louisville, there's no way to not have him on all tickets, but I just think he's faster on a wet track & will play against him if the track is fast.

Clearly, if the reason for the slower #s on MO/MOR/DC were a dislike of the wet track, on the #s, any one of those 3 has a legitimate shot in the Derby-before analyzing, post or pace.