Toppled,

Those aren't the only 2 possibilities, the San Felipe being an aberration, or it causing him to bounce like a rubber ball.

The other option, as you point out in the post and then discount it, is that he didn't like the wet track. Combined with a ridiculous runaway pace he set (caused by hating track?), he had every reason to run a bad race (without it being a form bounce)

Met a guy named Julian at a TG seminar years some time back (that he was leading). He said a knock like the one u and others point out with Danzig candy is a dealbreaker on a 2-1 favorite. While on a 20-1 shot, it is acceptable risk.

It has been years since that day and I am likely paraphrasing not completely correctly. That said, I laugh when I read posters saying they are "tossing Danzig Candy" as if tossing a 20-1 shot takes some huge modicum of courage. Tell me why u are tossing Nyquist. That may provide value...

Rob