Earlier this week I read a statistical study which confirms something I've seen in books & always sort of believed. By way of example,if today at GP you made nice scores in the 3rd,4th & 6th, & one of your prime plays of the day was Wild Buddy in the last race, who was likely to be the fav, because you were convinced he would move fwd off the -11, & that the move you had in mind gave him an approx. 70% chance to win,then when WB lost by a very short nose to a 13-1 shot ridden by C. Hunt, who replaced Guidry on a horse that did not appear to have any chance, you would know based on a statistical study done by Richard Epstein that the 3-1 odds on WB represented an increase in expectation of approx 15%, all things being equal of course. In other words, if you happen to like the fav in the last race, & your dope is right, there's a somewhat better chance of an overlay.