Since there have been a couple of comments on this subject, we're going to post an article I wrote for Thoroughbred Daily News that appeared 4/13.
TGJB

NOT CHOPPED LIVER

Ahh, Spring. Baseball, the NBA playoffs, girl watching, and the annual bad-mouthing of the three year old crop. The last time conventional wisdom said we had a good group was, well, when? Easy Goer- Sunday Silence? Affirmed-Alydar? Actually, the conventional wisdom is wrong- thoroughbreds as a group are getting better, and three year olds are no exception.
The misconception is usually founded on one of two concepts- first, that when there is no dominant horse(or two), they all must be mediocre, or second, that failure of early season stars to beat their elders later on is proof they were no good to begin with. The former doesn’t allow for the possibility that several(and in some cases many)members of a crop can be very good, and the latter ignores some mitigating factors. More on that later.
Ultimately, the trick is to find an objective way to measure ability, which is why the folks at Thoroughbred Daily News have asked me to write this article. I have been making the ratings for the Thoro-Graph sheets for twenty years, data that is used both by horsemen and professional gamblers. For those unfamiliar with us, on our scale, the lower the figure, the better the performance. So, let me throw a couple of numbers at you. For the first fifteen of those years, the Derby winner’s figure averaged around 5. Over the last five years, the winners have averaged about 2 ½. On our scale, a point is worth two lengths at a mile and a quarter. In other words, the last five winners have been about five lengths better than their fifteen predecessors.
So, why don’t we get a dominant three year old, and why don’t many top Spring sensations go on to beat their elders? BECAUSE today’s horses are better, that’s why.
Take a look at the roster of any NFL team, and compare it to one of twenty years ago. You will find that players today are much bigger, stronger and faster. Likewise thoroughbred racing, with its market induced Darwinism- selective breeding and advances in nutrition and sports medicine have made racehorses faster. And, in simplest terms, more speed means more stress. Stronger muscles mean more strain on tendons, ligaments, and bones. A pitcher who throws hard is more likely to have arm trouble, and a fast horse is less likely to stay sound.
A sheets concept that has gradually gained widespread acceptance is that of bouncing- the idea that a horse can run fast enough to knock himself out and run poorly next time out, and sometimes for a lot longer than that. You know those stories about horses of yesteryear who won a stake, got on a train, won another one five days later, and two more that month? It’s not that they were tougher- it’s that they were slower. They didn’t run fast enough to hurt themselves. This is also why harness horses can compete in three heats in the same day- try that with thoroughbreds sometime. Insure them first.
Why don’t we get dominant three year olds? The level of competition is so high that it takes an enormous effort to win a big race, and after one or two big efforts a still-young horse is knocked out, and loses to another horse who runs a huge effort, and who is soon knocked out himself, which is also why it has become so difficult to win the Triple Crown. Why don’t top Spring three year olds go on to beat older horses? Because when young horses run really fast they often ruin themselves before the Fall- in the last two years alone, think of Fusaichi Pegasus, Monarchos, Point Given, Balto Star, and Millenium Wind.
In fact, a lot of top horses ruin themselves even before the Triple Crown by running too fast, too soon. In the last twenty years only Thunder Gulch has run a really big figure as early as February, and gone on to win the Derby. It’s almost impossible to sustain that level of performance for four months- the recent horses who were able to run well throughout the Triple Crown, Real Quiet, Victory Gallop, Silver Charm, even Charismatic, were all horses who didn’t start running big figures until April or May, and only had to sustain their form for two months.
Which brings us to the question of a five week Triple Crown, and at the risk of beating a dead(or at least seriously exhausted)horse, it’s ridiculous, even in an industry whose motto is “Don’t fix it whether it’s broken or not”. The Triple Crown was conceived at a time when horses were much slower, and took a lot less out of themselves. If you put incredibly fast horses through a series of stressful preps, then the Derby, bring them back on two weeks, then ask them to go a mile and a half in their third start in five weeks, the results are predictable- only a few will make the Belmont, and virtually no one will be any good later. And the industry will bemoan its lack of stars.
In figure terms, last year’s crop was tremendous- Point Given was a monster and lots of others ran huge individual races. This year’s crop is comparable, with Came Home and Harlan’s Holiday both having run giant Thoro-Graph figures of zero by mid March, which probably doesn’t bode well for their long term prospects. Perfect Drift ran almost as well in the Spiral, but later development and very savvy pre-Derby freshening give him a good shot to be a factor in May and June.
There are a number of horses who could signal their readiness for a strong Triple Crown campaign with a forward move in their final Derby prep, but one gives me such a sense of deja-vu it makes the hair on the back of my neck stand up. A few years ago we spotted a colt who didn’t have top ability yet, but had a great, steadily improving graph as a two year old. Prestonwood bought him on our recommendation, Elliot Walden didn’t bring him out until March, only running him twice before the Derby, and Victory Gallop not only fired in all three Triple Crown races but went on to be champion the following year.
When Shug McGaughey trained Easy Goer he prepped him in the Gotham and Wood, which in those days were two weeks apart, then back again on two weeks rest in the Derby(a loss to Sunday Silence), and again on two weeks in the Preakness(another loss). When he finally got three weeks before the Belmont Easy Goer won by a pole.
Now Shug has a colt with slow but steady improvement and decent but not great figures as a juvenile. This time he’s also running in the Gotham and Wood- but now those races are four weeks apart, with another three weeks before the Derby. Saarland is slower than several others right now, but this year’s Victory Gallop should move forward through the Spring, and should be one of the few still standing come the Belmont, and beyond.