Re: Bloodhorse Belmont Preview. (778 Views)
Posted by:
P-Dub (IP Logged)
Date: May 28, 2016 11:00PM
bobphilo Wrote:
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> Odds, like everything else, are meaningless unless
> you have a significantly large sample to prove you
> have an advantage.
> If the Derby is not relevant to this discussion,
> than the Preakness is not relevant to this
> discussion of the Belmont, as cabanfan has pointed
> out.
> The thing these races have in common in this
> discussion is the irrelevancy of race specific
> theories.
I wasn't talking about the Belmont. I was talking about any race that could be labeled specific. In this case, The Preakness. That race has a specific distance at a specific track. Finding a constant, even if it doesn't go back 239 years, doesn't make it irrelevant.
Regarding sample size, its also important to get ahead of the curve. While you wait for a larger sample size, you pass on winners. If race after race has closers hit the board at good odds, I'm not going to wait until 2050 to use that data.
I never said, key these horses with every last dollar to your name. But they can be used them to spice up exotics.
You cited an obscure piece of data regarding the Derby. I'm talking about something specific to the running of the race.
"The thing these races have in common in this discussion is the irrelevancy of race specific theories."
Your opinion, which your entitled to. Results say otherwise.
I've got a 4th quarter to sweat through.
P-Dub