My analysis of the Belmont appeared on the Fair Grounds Web Site - fgno.com.

Belmont Stakes Picks by Dick Powell

I haven’t liked this group of 3YO’s from the start and I am not going to change my opinion now. Like any other race, handicapping has to be based on pari-mutuel value and War Emblem represents little value at even money so I’ll take a complete pass on him.

You’ll hear over and over how great it would be for racing if we were to have a Triple Crown winner but I disagree. Yes, War Emblem has beaten his sophomore rivals in the Derby and Preakness and now stands on the verge of history. But let’s take a look back on how he got here and why it’s unlikely he’ll go forward in Saturday’s 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.

Go back to the Illinois Derby on April 6. A controversial scratch of One Tuff Fox left War Emblem as the lone speed on a track that historically favors frontrunners going two turns. War Emblem was sensational that day beating Repent by over six lengths in fast time. His owner at the time, Russell Reineman, was now eligible for a $1 million bonus if he were to win a Triple Crown race. Reineman decided that they would skip the Derby and point for the Preakness. This is how much confidence he had in his colt.

Meanwhile, Bob Baffert’s last Derby hope, Danthebluegrassman, was running dead last on the same day in the Santa Anita Derby. Without a Derby prospect, Baffert was searching high and wide for a Derby runner and he and Prince Salman of the Thoroughbred Corporation were able to purchase War Emblem a few days later from Reineman. Baffert was able to get the high-strung son of Our Emblem to relax and came into the Derby as a longshot whose only chance was to dominate the front end as he did in the Illinois Derby.

Many thought the chances of War Emblem stealing off to another easy lead in the Kentucky Derby were remote and he was dismissed at odds of 20-1. Jockey Victor Espinoza sent him to the front and without any challenges early, he relaxed through even fractions and spurted away in the stretch to win the Run for the Roses convincingly.

Now, things were supposed to be different in the Preakness where no one would be caught napping. There was lots of big talk from various jockeys and trainers about how there was no way they were going to allow a repeat of the soft pace scenario of the Derby. When the gate opened, Menacing Dennis went right to the lead. War Emblem was down on the rail behind and it looked like Pat Day was going to move Booklet up alongside him going into the first turn.

But, for some reason, Day didn’t send Booklet and allowed Espinoza to move out from the rail and go up first over into the turn. Day now was three wide going into the turn and would up severely compromising Proud Citizen’s chances by carrying him extremely wide. Down the backside, War Emblem was now clear on the outside of Menacing Dennis with USS Tinosa, Booklet, Medaglia D’Oro and Proud Citizen four abreast behind him. When Menacing Dennis tired on the far turn, Espinoza was able to take the lead without any effort and the only stalker running on was Proud Citizen. Yes, War Emblem repelled the challenge of Proud Citizen and then one last-gasp run from local star Magic Weisner to hold on and win in a game effort.

However, if Day would have done his job and moved Booklet up next to War Emblem, I feel that you would have seen a different horse that day and instead of relaxing he would have gotten very rank and wasted energy.

Now, three weeks later, War Emblem is being asked to run another huge race at a marathon distance. Great horses might be able to put together four top races in a row and I don’t think anyone is ready to characterize War Emblem as a great horse. In his favor, though, is if this crop of 3YO’s is as bad as I think they are, all he has to do his beat eleven mediocre rivals to gain a place in history.

Ken McPeek has shown an affinity to get horses ready for big races and his contender here intrigues me. Sarava is by Wild Again out of a Deputy Minister mare so he has a solid two-turn dirt pedigree. His win on the undercard of the Preakness was very strong and his prior two starts this year were compromised by slopy tracks. Lightly-raced and improving quickly, I think he has a great shot at a long price and I’ll take him to upset the Belmont.

Proud Citizen ran an incredible race in the Preakness. The problem is how many big efforts in a short period of time can he put together before going backwards in form. Wayne Lukas has been a master of the Belmont though and knows how to get horses in peak form and then keep them there.

Like a Hero is a stoutly-bred horse from Beau Greely who won a minor stake at Hollywood Park last out. He draws inside and gets Pat Day for a ground-saving trip.

1. Sarava
2. Proud Citizen
3. Like a Hero
4. War Emblem