What gets my attention in the ROTW, is the writeup makes no mention of [b]CARINA MIA's[/b] slow races being the two she ran at 1+1/16. Her fast races have been at 1m or shorter.

Since the two fillies are carrying the same weight, technically [b]Songbird[/b] has run a couple of races slightly faster at the 1+1/16 distance and a couple slower.

Also noteworthy is that [b]Carina Mia[/b] has lost ground on the first turn repeatedly. Songbird doesn't lose ground and from the one post Sunday could keep that streak intact.

CCoA will be @ the new and longer distance of 1+1/8. So where do we expect [b]Carina Mia[/b] to go past Songbird on the second turn? Probably not smartest so Early also seems unlikely which leaves late in the final stretch. A portion of the race which one could argue looks to be her vulnerabilty.

Using TG Sire data >1m Medaglia D'Oro (Songbird's Sire) 11[sup]2[/sup] can be given the nod over Malibu Moon 12[sup]3[/sup].

As the analysis points out the third horse in the race has a m/l of 12/1 and a 3 y/o line that makes her look like an iron horse. And on her best she even looks like she could contend for more than just the bottom of the exacta.

But wait, remember American Pharoah and Nyquist won a lot of races before being awarded a small TG #. Their secret a high cruising speed, a pace that cooks any competitors who try and stay close. Songbird as we have seen has done the same. Consequently my view is that [b]Weep No More[/b] is the horse most likely to be unaffected by Songbirds early pace superiority and my choice to fill out the exacta and/or trifecta.

As a filly aside Shirley Temple (as a beautiful young woman) starred in the 1949 movie The Seabiscuit Story. Airing this morning @ 6:00 a.m.