Dark day at Saratoga has me thinking ahead to the weekend stakes. Haskell/Jim Dandy weekend usually one of my favorites of the year, outside the Triple Crown/Breeders Cup.

Looking forward to seeing the sheets, but some early thoughts.

Haskell

Most will be expecting Nyquist to get back on the winning track here (although he ran well in defeat in the Preakness).

Gun Runner, much more popular with non-TG users, could be interesting in the race. While he was "slow" heading in the Derby, I thought he was an underneath use, off his improved tactical speed in the Fair Grounds race. I have long been a believer that when non-front runners suddenly show improved gate speed/tactical speed, it is a sign they are hitting a form spree. (not a red-board, as Nyquist wasn't on any of my tickets in the 1st slot, so using Gun Runner underneath was meaningless). He ran well in the Derby, likely a better performance than his TG figure will show (he saved ground). Haven't seen a figure for the Matt Winn race, but he won and visually looked OK.

American Freedom. Baffert has won how many Haskell's? 6? 8? Lost track. Unfortunately for anybody that likes this horse, he will be an underlay because of Baffert. Extremely popular at Monmouth. And why not, he almost always wins. As for American Freedom, he will be another that I think will look a bit slow on TG (from memory of the California figure). That said, at Saratoga this weekend I must have had 10 people tell me that Baffert is telling anybody that will listen that American Freedom is a monster. Whatever that is worth.

Interesting post draw there in shortish expected field and jockey decisions will be key. None of Nyquist, gun Runner or American Freedom are blazers out of the gate, but all have gate speed. Jockey intent and post position could be key.

As for the Travers, I start out by hating Creator, regardless of what his sheet looks like. cost me a bundle in the Belmont. Going to say the 1 1/2 miles made him best there, not that he is an improving horse. Mohaymen, a "hate and toss" for me in the Derby off the bad effort at Gulfstream, will go favored, i would think. Kiaran extremely unpredictable. Starting Saratoga hot and has loved this horse all winter/spring. Expecting an extreme underlay versus actual chances of winning, but will be hard to discount if he runs back to his figures earlier in the year, or improves on them.

Destin will be worth a look for sure. Had the big figure early in the year and after a deceptively decent Derby ran very well in the Belmont. Feeling pain as I type this, as I was sure JAvier was getting him home. Shortening back up, with some time and perhaps the best tactical speed of the contenders, he could be very tough here.

Governor Malibu, another horse I expect to be overbet, will be a likely toss for me. Talk to too many people who thought Rosario cost this horse a win in the Belmont. Agreed that he got stopped and lost some momentum, but to me he isn't getting to either Destin or Creator and with too many people giving him credit for a race he didn't run, he figures shorter than true odds. (if that isn't true come this weekend, I will have to reconsider)

As for a horse who it seems isn't running this weekend, Exaggerator is a "summer long toss" for me. Don't care where he shows up. I liked him in the SA Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but with the up and down workouts over the past month, followed by indecision and now maybe a decision to run 1 1/4 off a layoff, it smells too much like Texas Red to me. Texas Red still hasn't crossed the finish line in last year's Travers....

Looking forward to the weekend.

Jim