CA12891289 Wrote:
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> I don't see the horse as a huge player in the
> race. I really don't think a couple of good
> efforts for Mike Yates in Hallandale 16 months ago
> mean this horse is an auto contender in this field
> . In fact, the horse, off those GP efforts, showed
> up for low-tier trainer 5 months later and ran
> poorly before another long layoff off the Servis
> claim. If this horse was trained by Ubillo and
> ridden by Trujillo tomorrow, the horse would
> probably be 25-1. As it is, I think 12-1 is a
> pretty good ML.
>
> Secondly, why do bad morning lines negatively
> impact your horizontal wagers? Let's say this line
> was off and this Servis horse is more like 3-1 on
> a real morning line. You have that information and
> not everyone else does. Doesn't that benefit you
> in pick 3, pick 4 etc? I'm confused?

If the line is bad, then you need to do extra handicapping to get that information. For example, you go through the race to determine each horse's chances. Then you need to do the race again and not take into consideration the horses' chances but rather handicap the public audience and what they are going to think and do. For each race, you have to handicap two races -- one is the race on the track, the other is the public opinion.

I agree that a bad line gives an advantage to people who work harder and do the second job. For an astute handicapper, a bad line is a good thing. However, that handicapper has to do a ton more work than normal. Guys like me have limited time for handicapping, if I have to do more handicapping per race, it means i will handicap less races.