Re: Saratoga Morning Line (1047 Views)
Posted by:
toppled (IP Logged)
Date: August 04, 2016 09:46AM
I don't love her figures, especially at high weight and at a distance where her one number was average. Other than a pace factor, having the lead down the backstretch, I don't see Boo as a contender for the top 2 spots. So even at 20/1, she'd be a toss for me. Value is only value when you have a chance to cash a ticket.
To me this is a cold exacta 2-9. Although at her lone speed Daddy's Boo could hang on for 3rd. While I handicapped this mixing Thoro-Graph figures with other data, I'll start with the sheets to explain my thoughts. #9 is proven at the distance and has numbers that tower over the field for the distance. But...#2 is now a 4 year old off the layoff. Her sire's TGI indicates we may see a 2.5 improvement. That puts her in #9's league. Additionally, we often see big jumps when Euros come to NA & get Lasix.
Here's some non-sheet data: This filly's only defeat was to a grade 1 filly. Her works say she's ready for a big effort. Her siblings were prolific winners in Europe. Trainer Clement can get them ready first in NA. Basically, #2 towers over this field and getting back to the ML, I'll never see anything near 4/1 on her. I'll be lucky to get 2/1 on her, because she should run like a 3/5 shot.
Speaking of sheets, bad ML odds & layoffs, the 4th race is a good example. Indulgent will be the favorite as the ML suggests, but Midnight Visitor will never be 10/1. The good news is her sheets are much better than her Beyers, so her form is a little hidden, but unless Indulgent dramatically improves, or there is a future star among the 1st time starters, if Visitor has the normal progression from 2 to 3, if she's fit she'll crush this field. When I handicapped this race I found a shocking statistic on Formulator: Todd Pletcher is 0 for 16 with first time starting 3 yos in 3 & up maiden races at Saratoga over the last 5 years.