BitPlayer Wrote:
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> I'm not a good enough player to make horizontal
> bets, except for the occasional double, so the
> morning line doesn't really affect me. I can look
> at the actual betting.
>
> What's not clear to me from this string, however,
> is how horizontal players determine "value" in
> races for which they cannot see betting. Do
> people really rely on the morning line, or do they
> have their own sense of who is likely to take
> money?

Consider decision making on the margins...say I want to go a little deeper in a leg but not too deep. I have all the main contenders, but I view the race as having variance and if any logical outsider is too long a price, I want to be covered if that price horse comes in. Imagine two horses I peg as having 8% chance of winning, but who are 6-1 and 15-1 in the morning line. I will always include the 15-1 and exclude the 6-1. Now maybe the 15-1 swings from 12-1 to 18-1 and the 6-1 between 9-2 and 8-1. That sort of variance is okay and fine and I can live with choosing the longer one and letting the shorter one beat me (remember, they have equal chance of coming in). However, if the 15-1 goes off at 7-2 and the 6-1 goes off at 18-1, I am going to be furious if the 18-1 comes in and I do not have it because I was choosing the longer of the two and I ended up with a 7-2 that had the same chance of coming in as an 18-1.

Now people are right, I can do the analysis to see for myself what I think those horses will go off at. Prior to this meet, i just trusted the prior guy, saved myself a lot of time, and can't ever remember being disappointed. Now, I am too snakebit to make a bet. In addition to handicapping the Pick 4, I have to also redo the line for all 4 races to make sure I dont get stung as per my example. That takes me double the time my usual handicapping takes me. Okay, that is all good and fine -- when I do it, I get an advantage over other people. My problem is I do not usually have double the time, so I need to cut back and just analyze and play less races. It makes playing a lot less fun.

The NYRA is allowed to make its choices, and I am allowed to make my choices. I have chosen on this Saturday to play Mountaineer (Waterford Park) rather Saratoga. I never in a million years would have believed I would ever say such a thing, but I am psyched to give it a try. Screw em. I am sick of being treated like dog doo.