Re: Saratoga Morning Line and Horizontal Play (954 Views)
Posted by:
PapaChach (IP Logged)
Date: August 05, 2016 12:56AM
I'm with you on the time factor. I get an hour or two on a Friday night to handicap and an hour or two on a Saturday afternoon to play. I make my own lines on the races I look at, sometimes it's more quick approximations, but I've been taking the ML as a given for years.
Capt. Moss on Saturday was a good illustration of the problem, at least as it affects me. I was looking for a single beyond Flintshire in the P6. I didn't think Capt. Moss would be any part of the 10-1 ML but with the ML that high and a short-priced Brownie in there I convinced myself he'd go 4-1. Figured beating the fave with a 4-1 shot who looked really good on paper was a good way to go. Maybe I should have, but I didn't see him going off 2-1, and if I'd known he would, I wouldn't have singled him. Wouldn't have mattered in the end as I never would have had Laoban, and I know this is mostly my fault, because I shouldn't have, but did, let that 10-1 ML affect the way I looked at the race.