Re: Saratoga Morning Line (816 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: August 05, 2016 06:12PM
P-Dub Wrote:
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> I can't believe all of the consternation over the
> ML.
>
> Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up or
> down from the ML. Every day. Ever see a ML from
> Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual odds
> can be wildly different from the ML. Yes, the
> pools are smaller. But it happens. It happens
> everywhere.
>
> Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn't as
> accurate as other places. I get it. It still
> shouldn't warrant all of the commotion.
>
> I agree 100% with MJellish. "Point 2: The job of
> the handicapper is to try to figure out our own
> line of who will most likely hit the board so we
> can decide if it offers value enough to bet our
> money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> irrespective of whatever the morning line person
> says."
>
> Its your responsibility, after handicapping the
> race, to figure out who offers value. You can do
> this by looking at the data. How many times have
> we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden form, a
> poor finishing position relative to the trip he
> got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift to 7/1.
> He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2. Happens all
> over the country. That's not the fault of the ML
> guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal ball,
> and accurately predict the betting patterns of the
> public every stinking race? Especially with the
> abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
>
> I've handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML that I
> don't agree with. I construct my tickets
> according to how I feel the race will be bet.
> Enough with the complaining about it taking more
> time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML should
> assist you. But if you see a sequence with a bad
> ML, then its your job to compensate for that. Some
> of the examples given, regarding how it affects
> you or hypothetical situations, are just
> ridiculous.
>
> He's had a rough meet making the line, and it can
> make it challenging to construct tickets. Put your
> big boy pants on and work around it.
You are such a talented handicapper that you don't need extra time to figure out if the ML is right or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us are not as smart as you and it takes us extra time to do that. It must not come as a surprise to you that there are handicappers less talented than you.
The ML is by definition an estimate or a projection. It will always never be right. The issue for those of us not as talented as you whether the misses are often and huge or are misses within a zone of reasonableness.
Unfortunately, telling its customers to put on their big boy pants and take it in the rear is SOP at the NYRA.