Re: Saratoga Morning Line (860 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: August 05, 2016 06:45PM
msola1 Wrote:
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> Can anyone give me a methodology for determining
> that a horse's chances to win a race are 8% (or
> any other percent)?
>
> If you think that's a dumb question, please don't
> respond. Just think it. But I'd really like to
> know how to go about making the actual line you
> speak of.
>
> Thanks,
>
> Mike
> PS: If you want to respond but don't want to take
> up the forum's time with it, you can talk to me by
> e-mail.
Here is an example -- if you have a 12 horse race, and you cannot separate them. You think every horse has an equal chance with all the other horses. Then each horse has an 8.33% chance to win. That is just an example.
Usually, when i handicap, i try to rank the horses first or put them in tiers. Then I work from there. it is not a science and your numbers are never perfect...you are just trying to get approximations.
Does that help?