SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> P-Dub Wrote:
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> > SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> >
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>
> > -----
> > > P-Dub Wrote:
> > >
> >
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> >
> > > -----
> > > > I can't believe all of the consternation
> over
> > > the
> > > > ML.
> > > >
> > > > Bad MLs happen all over the country. Races
> > > > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift up
> > or
> > > > down from the ML. Every day. Ever see a ML
> > > from
> > > > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The actual
> > > odds
> > > > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes,
> the
> > > > pools are smaller. But it happens. It
> happens
> > > > everywhere.
> > > >
> > > > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn't
> as
> > > > accurate as other places. I get it. It
> still
> > > > shouldn't warrant all of the commotion.
> > > >
> > > > I agree 100% with MJellish. "Point 2: The
> job
> > > of
> > > > the handicapper is to try to figure out our
> > own
> > > > line of who will most likely hit the board
> so
> > > we
> > > > can decide if it offers value enough to bet
> > our
> > > > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > > > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> > > person
> > > > says."
> > > >
> > > > Its your responsibility, after handicapping
> > the
> > > > race, to figure out who offers value. You
> > can
> > > do
> > > > this by looking at the data. How many times
> > > have
> > > > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with hidden
> > form,
> > > a
> > > > poor finishing position relative to the
> trip
> > he
> > > > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift
> to
> > > 7/1.
> > > > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2.
> Happens
> > > all
> > > > over the country. That's not the fault of
> the
> > > ML
> > > > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal
> > ball,
> > > > and accurately predict the betting patterns
> > of
> > > the
> > > > public every stinking race? Especially with
> > the
> > > > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> > > >
> > > > I've handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML
> that
> > I
> > > > don't agree with. I construct my tickets
> > > > according to how I feel the race will be
> bet.
> > > > Enough with the complaining about it taking
> > > more
> > > > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the ML
> > > should
> > > > assist you. But if you see a sequence with
> a
> > > bad
> > > > ML, then its your job to compensate for
> that.
> > > Some
> > > > of the examples given, regarding how it
> > affects
> > > > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > > > ridiculous.
> > > >
> > > > He's had a rough meet making the line, and
> it
> > > can
> > > > make it challenging to construct tickets.
> Put
> > > your
> > > > big boy pants on and work around it.
> > >
> > > You are such a talented handicapper that you
> > don't
> > > need extra time to figure out if the ML is
> > right
> > > or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us
> are
> > not
> > > as smart as you and it takes us extra time to
> > do
> > > that. It must not come as a surprise to you
> > that
> > > there are handicappers less talented than
> you.
> > >
> > > The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> > > projection. It will always never be right.
> The
> > > issue for those of us not as talented as you
> > > whether the misses are often and huge or are
> > > misses within a zone of reasonableness.
> > >
> > > Unfortunately, telling its customers to put
> on
> > > their big boy pants and take it in the rear
> is
> > SOP
> > > at the NYRA.
> >
> > Little touchy there?
> >
> > It has nothing to do with me being "better" or
> > "smarter". And yes, your sarcasm was very
> clear.
> >
> > It has to do with me dealing with it. I don't
> > waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a
> forum,
> > and complain over and over and over about the
> same
> > thing.
> >
> > Again. Try to comprehend this. It happens
> EVERY
> > FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK. You
> think
> > this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift up
> or
> > down from their ML all the time.
> >
> > Perhaps you are right about me being smarter and
> a
> > better handicapper. I can figure out which
> horses
> > should get action, and which ones should be
> > longer. You desperately need help in that
> > department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming the
> ML
> > for you having difficulties making wagers.
>
> If you think the ML is so irrelevant, then
> racetracks across America can save money by firing
> all their linemakers. Nothing requires the Track
> to have a linemaker. They do it because it is
> perceived as being a courtesy to customers and to
> facilitate betting. If it is truly as irrelevant
> as you believe it is, the industry is making a big
> mistake on spending money on something that nobody
> cares about when that money could be better spent
> on something else for the customers.

So Cal,

They do the best they can. Its not an easy job, trying to predict what the public will do.

I didn't say its irrelevant. I said I deal with it.

Look, having an accurate ML helps. I get it. I'm just saying, it isn't a reason for this much grief.

I understand your frustrations, I'm just surprised it has caused this much grief. All insults aside, I know you're a good player and just believe you can handle it. That's all.

P-Dub