P-Dub Wrote:
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> SoCalMan2 Wrote:
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> > P-Dub Wrote:
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> > -----
> > > SoCalMan2 Wrote:
> > >
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
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> >
> > > -----
> > > > P-Dub Wrote:
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> > >
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> >
> > >
> > > > -----
> > > > > I can't believe all of the consternation
> > over
> > > > the
> > > > > ML.
> > > > >
> > > > > Bad MLs happen all over the country.
> Races
> > > > > everywhere, routinely, have horses drift
> up
> > > or
> > > > > down from the ML. Every day. Ever see a
> ML
> > > > from
> > > > > Evangeline Downs or CharlesTown? The
> actual
> > > > odds
> > > > > can be wildly different from the ML. Yes,
> > the
> > > > > pools are smaller. But it happens. It
> > happens
> > > > > everywhere.
> > > > >
> > > > > Ok, so maybe the guy doing Saratoga isn't
> > as
> > > > > accurate as other places. I get it. It
> > still
> > > > > shouldn't warrant all of the commotion.
> > > > >
> > > > > I agree 100% with MJellish. "Point 2: The
> > job
> > > > of
> > > > > the handicapper is to try to figure out
> our
> > > own
> > > > > line of who will most likely hit the
> board
> > so
> > > > we
> > > > > can decide if it offers value enough to
> bet
> > > our
> > > > > money to hopefully cash a ticket. This is
> > > > > irrespective of whatever the morning line
> > > > person
> > > > > says."
> > > > >
> > > > > Its your responsibility, after
> handicapping
> > > the
> > > > > race, to figure out who offers value.
> You
> > > can
> > > > do
> > > > > this by looking at the data. How many
> times
> > > > have
> > > > > we seen a ROTW mention a horse with
> hidden
> > > form,
> > > > a
> > > > > poor finishing position relative to the
> > trip
> > > he
> > > > > got? This horse could be ML 4/1 and drift
> > to
> > > > 7/1.
> > > > > He could be ML 10/1 and drop to 7/2.
> > Happens
> > > > all
> > > > > over the country. That's not the fault of
> > the
> > > > ML
> > > > > guy. You expect the guy to have a crystal
> > > ball,
> > > > > and accurately predict the betting
> patterns
> > > of
> > > > the
> > > > > public every stinking race? Especially
> with
> > > the
> > > > > abundance of 2YOs and FTS?
> > > > >
> > > > > I've handicapped P3/4, and have seen ML
> > that
> > > I
> > > > > don't agree with. I construct my tickets
> > > > > according to how I feel the race will be
> > bet.
> > > > > Enough with the complaining about it
> taking
> > > > more
> > > > > time. That time is negligible. Yes, the
> ML
> > > > should
> > > > > assist you. But if you see a sequence
> with
> > a
> > > > bad
> > > > > ML, then its your job to compensate for
> > that.
> > > > Some
> > > > > of the examples given, regarding how it
> > > affects
> > > > > you or hypothetical situations, are just
> > > > > ridiculous.
> > > > >
> > > > > He's had a rough meet making the line,
> and
> > it
> > > > can
> > > > > make it challenging to construct tickets.
> > Put
> > > > your
> > > > > big boy pants on and work around it.
> > > >
> > > > You are such a talented handicapper that
> you
> > > don't
> > > > need extra time to figure out if the ML is
> > > right
> > > > or wrong. That is good for you. Some of us
> > are
> > > not
> > > > as smart as you and it takes us extra time
> to
> > > do
> > > > that. It must not come as a surprise to you
> > > that
> > > > there are handicappers less talented than
> > you.
> > > >
> > > > The ML is by definition an estimate or a
> > > > projection. It will always never be right.
> > The
> > > > issue for those of us not as talented as
> you
> > > > whether the misses are often and huge or
> are
> > > > misses within a zone of reasonableness.
> > > >
> > > > Unfortunately, telling its customers to put
> > on
> > > > their big boy pants and take it in the rear
> > is
> > > SOP
> > > > at the NYRA.
> > >
> > > Little touchy there?
> > >
> > > It has nothing to do with me being "better"
> or
> > > "smarter". And yes, your sarcasm was very
> > clear.
> > >
> > > It has to do with me dealing with it. I
> don't
> > > waste my energy writing 50 paragraphs on a
> > forum,
> > > and complain over and over and over about the
> > same
> > > thing.
> > >
> > > Again. Try to comprehend this. It happens
> > EVERY
> > > FREAKING DAY at EVERY FREAKING TRACK. You
> > think
> > > this is just a Saratoga issue? Horses drift
> up
> > or
> > > down from their ML all the time.
> > >
> > > Perhaps you are right about me being smarter
> and
> > a
> > > better handicapper. I can figure out which
> > horses
> > > should get action, and which ones should be
> > > longer. You desperately need help in that
> > > department. Its a piss poor excuse, blaming
> the
> > ML
> > > for you having difficulties making wagers.
> >
> > If you think the ML is so irrelevant, then
> > racetracks across America can save money by
> firing
> > all their linemakers. Nothing requires the
> Track
> > to have a linemaker. They do it because it is
> > perceived as being a courtesy to customers and
> to
> > facilitate betting. If it is truly as
> irrelevant
> > as you believe it is, the industry is making a
> big
> > mistake on spending money on something that
> nobody
> > cares about when that money could be better
> spent
> > on something else for the customers.
>
> So Cal,
>
> They do the best they can. Its not an easy job,
> trying to predict what the public will do.
>
> I didn't say its irrelevant. I said I deal with
> it.
>
> Look, having an accurate ML helps. I get it. I'm
> just saying, it isn't a reason for this much
> grief.
>
> I understand your frustrations, I'm just surprised
> it has caused this much grief. All insults aside,
> I know you're a good player and just believe you
> can handle it. That's all.

No offense is taken here. Because I do not have much time these days, I handle it the best way -- I just play less races. It is fine. I just hate to see the game I love giving itself another unnecessary self-inflicted wound that contributes to all the other stuff dragging down the game.