FrankD. Wrote:
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> Caveman tickets can get expensive and the only
> time I'll use one anymore is if I'm bombs away in
> the sequence. The A,B,C's without ticket maker can
> be a little daunting at first but after a few they
> just flow. The pick 5 that both Jimbo and I hit a
> couple of Saturdays ago is a good example. In .50
> increments by the A,B,C's it was $88, caveman
> would have been $120, the difference adds up over
> time.I won't tell you which of us is the
> mathematician who bet the cave man sequence. :)

This is an *incredibly* important point: Frank saved ~35% by playing structured ABC tickets rather than Cavemans. In this game if you can find 2% you're a genius, so who can afford to give away 35%?

> Rocky(mathcapper) has 2 formula's for DD odds, one
> is quick and easy, the other bit more complicated.
> I had a couple discussions with him about
> protecting sequences in motion. I don't do it
> often but yes especially at the Spa you almost
> always get 2 maiden races in the pick 5 sequence
> so the wise guy horse can easily be missed. TGJB
> will attest I'm sure to Rocky's incredible
> accuracy in nailing the odds that a horse will go
> off at, conservatively I'll give him 95%.
> Especially if you missed a live horse in the final
> leg or even one that's a bit disportionate to a
> legitimate ML!!!! Per Rocky " you are clinically
> insane if you don't protect anything with a pulse
> with win bets if you are alive for big money".

Caveat: if by 'big money' Rocky means a genuinely life-altering sum of money, then I could be convinced. The utility in making that score, or even half of that score when you hedge out, is so big, that you may decide the utility outweighs the EV.

Another scenario where hedging could be correct would be a situation as you described: take a P5 sequence with a 5th leg that has many first-timers, and you realize while studying the probables that you have failed to cover a horse taking a ton of steam. You have gotten new, valuable information, which may make you realize that you want to play a DD with your 4th leg horse into that 5th leg horse.

Otherwise, hedging = buying insurance = decreasing your edge. I have a hard enough time finding any edge in this game, and am loathe to give away even a fraction of it by hedging. Gambling within your bankroll means you can stand the swings. If you can't stand them psychologically, then you may be in the wrong line of work/hobby.

> In pick 4's I've done a weighted sequence for
> years before I ever learned my A,B,C's per my
> opinion of the horses % to win and when I like a
> price horse that I feel has better than a 20% per
> chance to win and will be over 10/1, I'll press
> that ticket looking for a home run or if I am
> negative about a 3/5 shot that may be on 80% plus
> of the tickets.

I like this concept a lot - in fact, I try to be even more polarized. I tend to bet P5 sequences with one ticket that I punch 10-20 times, and that ticket will have max 7-8 horses used in the entire sequence. Then I will play 5 tickets "4 A's with 1 B," and that's typically it.