Race 4:
Several in here with similar number power, but the one I like best is [b]#10 Mighty Souper.[/b] Weights range from 115 to 124, I always adjust down from the high weight, MS carries 122, around a half point in weight. 2nd start as a 4YO here, she was OP with a pace AND H designation for her last. She ran the fastest fig in the race last year at Saratoga, I look for her 2nd start as a 4YO to move forward and at least match that number. If she does she's a huge threat, as long as she doesn't lose a ton of ground from the outside post. 4/1 on the ML I would need every bit of that. Using her on top of the following:

[b]1-Penjade (9/2ML):[/b] Gets in light, ran decent enough in her 3YO debut, can move forward and hit the board. Chad/Irad may kill the price tho.
[b]2- Ortiga (20/1ML)[/b]: Gets almost a point, been sprinting now stretching back out. If she works out a trip and runs her good one, something she did last year here, she can hit the board at a nice price. Johnny V wins at a 19% clip for this trainer.
[b]3-Last Waltz (3/1ML)[/b]: Gets in light, I see her running the sam number as 2 back. Good for a piece but an underlay for the win.
[b]5- Montalcino (7/2ML):[/b] 4YO ran back to his 3YO top first out this year (getting a pace,H,op designation), giving him license to move forward.
[b]8-Stella Rose (5/1ML)[/b]: At 117 gets in light with around 1.5 points of weight. Lightly raced, she tried the grass for the first time in her last and tossed a solid figure despite not breaking very well. A pair up is the worst she will do and a slight move forward puts her squarely in the mix. Well bred for the sod too.

As SoCal has mentioned, who knows what the odds will be. If the ML hold up, #10 Mighty Souper my key. If the odds are nothing like the ML, I may come back here and change the win ticket.

Race 5:
I like a couple in this 1 3/8 turf race for 3 YOs. [b]#3 Manitoulin (6/1ML)[/b] gets in light at 115, as we again have a wide range of weight carried (113-124). She has forged her way steadily to the fastest number in the race - weight adjusted - and I see absolutely no reason why he shouldn't fire another big shot today. A clear key from the 3 hole hopefully saving ground along the way. Anything close to his ML and he may be one of my top plays today.

I also like the [b]#10 Mission Driven (8/1ML)[/b]. The 8/1 ML may be a pipe dream with the Chad/JJ connections. Carrying 120 pds today this guy matched his 3YO top in his 4YO debut last out, an explosive pattern to me and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he runs a new top which makes him a major player here. I don't have a racing form handy, but my pace numbers/running styles don't show an abundance of speed in here. Drawing outside I expect him to be forwardly placed early. Ground loss always a concern from this post, hopefully getting out smartly can mitigate that to some degree, but a clear contender.

Tote will determine who gets my win money, but unless we get another "Stoned" ML vs Reality odds board it will be the #3. I will put in a nice exacta with these two.

Minors:
5,6,7,8,9. I'm too tired for writeups on all of them, hoping one of the price horses can hit the board.

JB with another solid job on the seminar. A few random thoughts:

[b]Race 6: The Personal Ensign[/b]- looks like a nice time to grab a beer and a bite. Crap shoot with little value.

[b]Race 7: The Ballerina,[/b]- I'm having a hard time with Paula off that big number, she's reacted off it before. Wavell solid but at the expected price I'll pass. Carina at 7/2? Meh. There are several in here that you can kinda make a case for. So having said a whole lot of nothing so far, I'll take a shot with [b]#2 By The Moon (6/1ML)[/b]. She's won at the 7F distance, just matched her 3YO top in her 2nd race as a 4YO last time. Thoropattern says 15% chance at a Top, so I'll need every bit of that 6/1ML but I think this one may go overlooked and go off at DD with JJ in the irons too. I'll take a flyer on her in a very contentious race.

[b]Race 8: The King's Bishop-[/b] Agree with JBs picks,the longshot he mentions, and I'm using the synthetic shipper Noholdingbackbear.

[b]Race 9: The Forego-[/b] Agree with the analysis, of the ones mentioned I like the "outsider". Solid ML price too.

[b]Race 11: The Travers -[/b] A fantastic analysis of the Travers. I'm right there with you.

Hanging out in the GGF turf club with a buddy. No, its not the Spa/Del Mar/Monmouth or any other great racetrack around the country. But I do have a beautiful view of the Golden Gate Bridge, and that never gets old. Of course, that will be offset by the dulcet tones of Ms Hermann. So what. Live racing, Travers Day, and a fistful of Thorographs, money, and cold beer.

Good luck to everyone on a great day of racing.

P-Dub