Re: Friedman/Trainer Stats/ and more (1359 Views)
Posted by:
Marc At (IP Logged)
Date: January 28, 2003 05:41PM
"As for the $1000 he mentions, what I got for that was Friedman’s admission that track maintenance affects track speed, which contradicted his earlier statements (regarding the 2000 Wood Memorial figures) that it did not."
I'm a bit hazy on this, but my memory of "The Odds Must Be Crazy," is that there are repeated mentions of track maintenance affecting track speed.
Isn't the general argument from you and Friedman on this issue is that you're more liberal in your beliefs on *how much* track maintenance can affect track speed, whereas he is essentially more cautious/conservative?
It seems like every time this issue comes up, there's a bit of genuine confusion between the two sides-- you think Friedman is saying ABSOLUTELY NO IMPACT, when instead he thinks the impact is less than you do, but not non-existent. And he doesn't seem to explain himself that well. Unless he can make $1000 in the process.
Unrelated: Walking around the book at Bally's at the National Handicapping Championships a couple weekends ago, I noticed someone in the Wolfson gang (and I guess it turns out it was Jr.) was using T-graph. Certainly validation of T-graph as a viable tool for handicappers looking to improve their game.
Ragozin customers? Saw some of those, too (no, I will not speculate on the ratios!), including the second-place finisher.
Had a nice chat with Josh Silverstein, a bright young guy who finished 8th-- Josh told me he uses absolutely NO speed figures when handicapping, because "there's no money in figures." He later admitted that some players obviously succeed with figs, but he makes most of his scores in maiden races and on the turf, focusing on what sounded like highly nuanced breeding and trainer plays.
Jerry, given the repeated mistakes that Ragozin makes-- that you point out with great confidence so often-- how do you think it's possible that Ragozin customers performed so well at the NHC (and at Suncoast) a couple weeks ago? Shouldn't the numbers be so wildly offbase that "condition plays" such as Offlee Wild would be out of the question?
Or, at the end of the day, would you acknowledge that their numbers are valid but you just know yours are better?