Re: Arrogate looked like a toss (1162 Views)
Posted by:
rezlegal (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2016 11:48AM
Sekrah is to given high marks and his comment should lead to a board discussion about to to handicap good eloping 3 year olds.I preface my comments with the fact that I had not a nickel on the winner yesterday and - of course, in hindsight, strongly believe I missed a real opportunity. I start out with two premises. One, 3 year old are essentially teenagers growing into themselves. Second, foot sheets players ( broad generalization to follow) there is too much of a tendency , IMO, to look at a 3 year olds back number as a basis for predicting that days race. I understand the methodology but it is not the only way to go and, it can be argued, is somewhat antithetical to the concept of development, particularly in a lightly raced horse. I prefer to try to find a 3 year old who has a real.chance to run a new top. I grant you the new top may or may not be fast enough to win the race but such horses will usually be lightly bet. When I did the race- - and I spent a lot of time,-I did not believe more than a 1-2 would be be required to win. We can debate that wisdom some other time.( I hated American Freedom- had run too fast, too often in too shorter period for my taste. ) But that led me to Destin, Gift box and Connect- and the sound of ripping tickets. if you adjust, as Sekrah did, Arrogates last to something less than a 4 , coupled with his being lightly raced AND bred to do the distance, and being a Juddmonte horse, it is hardly a reach to ask him to run a 1 yesterday. ( I won't even guess what jerry will give him). More to the point, if you look at many of the horses that were bet yesterday, either because of patterns or Breeding- let's not forget that even sheets players should pay attention to that in 1 1/4 mice- many on this board, if nothing else, should have concluded the winner was going to move forward, at a price. My congrats to Sekrah- there are many lessons for all of us in a game that requires an open mind and education. It is irrelevant to this discussion that he freaked, broke the track record etc. Nobody saw that coming.