Keeneland Race 8 Dirt Route AOC $80K

Looking at the figs all entries have posted in the last 6 months, it appears that it will take a "3" or better to win it. The rain is gone and expect fast track.

For Greater Glory has not run to this fig in a year, and as a 6 YO the Afleet Alex's don't show improvement after 4. I still have his hat from the OP races back in the day. He was heavily bet back then by the customers at the Longshot Saloon - no longer there - who served as a bookie for Vegas (allegedly of course). No 3 in his immediate future.

Net Gain, moved to Tomlinson since his last race in August, has never run a figure in the neighborhood of a 3. Include offspring move up 2 pts from 3-4, and after 5 shots at it, he hasn't.

Catholic Cowboy is probably not Hillary's favorite horse, but that's for another day. In April, he ran a 2 and has run a 3 or better 5 times. I almost forgot about Nick Zito, it'd be cool to see him win, and this 2 came right here at KNLD in spring meet. 60% shot to be there.

Tale of Life, 4YO, has run a 3 -4 4 times in his last 5, finishing a distant 6th at Parx. I put no faith in anything from Parx, and will give him a long look for a hot trainer, Graham Motion. 45% shot to be there.

Ami's Holiday has run a 3 10 months ago at GP. However, 3rd off the break sets up a good performance usually and Joe Bravo has been tearing it up with few mounts at different tracks over the last month with limited mounts. However, Harlan's Holiday shows slight regression from 4-5, and a 3 pt jump has not been part of his history.

Grande Shores is 8years old, has not been more than a mile in a year, was never bred to go long, and has little chance. I'm perplexed Geroux takes this mount for Casse, so I'll triple check anything else they have tomorrow.

Hesinfront has run this fig several times, and has regressed at elast 3 pts each time. Not today.

Raagheb - 4YO - has been consistent all year in this neighborhood save for his lone stinker at OP. Since he was ridden by the tracks best jock that day, it must've been something else - toss it out. Problem is I don't have any idea who the trainer is. Giveing him a 38% shot to be there.

Financial Modeling ran to the winning fig last summer and last winter as a 4YO. Not a good performance in last after the layoff. Similar got a 4 pt jump after a month rest last summer, expecting same here. Solid connections & the drop from where he was LY puts him in contention but I'd need 5-6:1.

Bottom Line:
I'll risk Financial Modeling simply becasue it appears 4 horses are faster today and in good stead with the Thoropattern to run today. In order, those would be:
Catholic Kowboy dropping out of a G1
Tale of Life edging Hesinfront on the basis of superior record at KEE, and at 12:1...
Raagheb needs to be boxed with the aforemention 3 horses.

Good Luck! Today's my 58th, so have one for me please!