Re: ROTW (1110 Views)
Posted by:
belmont3 (IP Logged)
Date: October 21, 2016 11:34PM
Happy 58th Shannie!!
I'll chip in with the 9th at Kee: The Raven Run
Probably take a 3 or better to take down this Grade II 7f dash.
I am sure some of the Backyard will recall the Prioress at SAR and # Lucy N Ethel. Especially Sean who I hope is thriving in Conn!!
Assuming all 12 run and fast track:
1) Covey Trace -ran a CT top that would be borderline competitive if paired. Not a fan of the #1 post when leaving a chute and would play for some reaction.
2) Ma Can Do It- Dale Romans turn back from 4 routes. Might go forward but would need a trip.
3) Grace's Treasure-another slow looking one with a 5 to get back to. Working well.
4) Lucy N Ethel- A Backyard legend and a picnic table pick by TGJB that I watched at Pennells. Huge 2yo Parx/Preciado # had many guessing that day. So, she ran a 3 and moves to Amoss/Lanerie. Two Kee works...may be controlling speed. Has # power to be there but a bit confusing. Still: Contender
5) Southern Girl- Laurel shipper KY bred (so no Md Millions for you) -Two Kee works . In top form with a paired 4 line. Never gone back. At 12-1 with Florent, longshot contender
6) Bellamentary- D'Amato ships in and turns back in distance. Slow on figs. Really do not 'get' this one so I will pass on him.
7) Malifbu Stacy: 6 1/2 with lots of development. Seems too slow.
8) Curlins Approval- Wolfson shipper for GP. Lightly raced, decent spacing. Fast, fit and dangerous with a 2 1/4 in last. . Tyler G sees fit to travel north and at anywhere near 8-1 ML, A contender.
9) Coniah: appear stuck in the 5 to 7 range. Maybe KM can improve on the paired 7's but would need a monstrous jump to win.
10) Sophia's Song: Interesting Pletcher entry with a recent 1. A CT bounce to a 5 and blinkers off. Contender
11) Takrees- the 2nd KM entry. This one a Shadwell. Made a late Prioress run. Likely do the same here.
12) Lightstream- Lynch and Leparoux - has the fastest fig in the field but was it Real or was it Memorex- Has yet to approach that debut number. The secondary top makes him competitive but: Outside post, no real tactical speed, a 3-1 ML. Contender on # power.
Summary:
Am not anticipating a super pace meltdown.
Based on ML, Lightstream is a horse I will play against. Likely wide trip and inability to get back to his top = poor value. Think there are a number of reasonably priced contenders. Curlin's Approval, Southern Girl, Sophia's Song and Lucy N Ethel are where I am focused. At this time of the year, I tend to gravitate towards the more lightly raced, developing types. Curlin's Approval and Sophia fit that profile and that is where I am likely to go.
Best of luck to all
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