johnnym Wrote:
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> I am no Mathcapper, but were the payout's a little
> light today at Gulfstream?
> Specific the following tri's
> Race 4,6,10

johnnym --

Fwiw, I ran the numbers through my spreadsheet for each of those races using the discounted Harville method, and relative to the horses' win odds, they did indeed come in light.

GP4 on 2/4:
$2 Ex paid $264.80, -29.6% light vs. estimate of $376.30.
$1 Tri paid $235.70, -38.5% light vs. estimate of $383.27.
$.10 Super paid $104.35, -8.4% light vs. estimate of $113.98.

GP6 on 2/4:
$2 Ex paid $120.60, -6.8% light vs. estimate of $129.36.
$1 Tri paid $591.60, -44.5% light vs. estimate of $1,066.54.
$.10 Super paid $349.08, -40.9% light vs. estimate of $590.59.


GP10 on 2/4:
$2 Ex paid $120.20, -6.3% light vs. estimate of $128.25.
$1 Tri paid $382.70, -26.9% light vs. estimate of $523.41.
$.10 Super paid $184.71, -26.8% light vs. estimate of $252.37.


I also took a look at the results for the 1/28 W.L. McKnight race you mentioned, which were generous vis-à-vis the win odds:

GP11 on 1/28:
$2 Ex paid $139.80, +24.3% higher than the estimate of $111.66.
$1 Tri paid $1,583.20, +50.6%% higher than the estimate of $1,051.40.
$.10 Super paid $1,171.94, +75.0% higher than the estimate of $669.50.


These results are all within the range of normal variation. As Jimbo stated, likely nothing nefarious going on. You tend to see wider variation in actual vs. expected prices as the exotics go deeper (ie. Pick 4 payouts vary more widely than DD's, Supers vary more widely than Ex's, etc.).

What I've noticed after much observation is that when there is wide variation in actual vs. expected payouts, it's often associated with the degree to which the horses' final odds vary from their morning line. The exotic payouts sometimes lean a little away from what is expected based on the final odds in the direction of the morning line.

For instance, in the 4th at GP, the place horse went off 32-1 vs. an 8-1 ML - that horse may have been a good deal lower than 32-1 in the exotics. In the 7th, the top four finishers all went off at odds slightly above that of their ML's. In the 10th, the winner went off at 17-1 vs. a 10-1 ML and may have been shorter than 17-1 in the exotics.

Over the long run though, using the discounted Harville method, I've found the average variation between expected and actual payouts for exactas to be less than 2%, and around 5% for tris and supers. But for any individual race, it's fairly common to see variations of up to +/- 50% or more from what's expected based on the corresponding win odds.

Rocky R.