I know I am not half of the word smith as some of the others on this board,but I try.

Win: Baffert has won 6 of the last 7 Rebel's and is 1-1 with horse's who has American in the name.
History says Baffert ships his A horse to Oaklawn and goes this route again this year.
AA 3rd race 2nd at 2 turns comes in light, expecting a move forward here and this is my pick to win the race.

I believe the $$ to be made in this race is underneath.

Place: Royal Mo, nice little pattern he has,comes in high weight,will not get an easy lead.
Untrapped; Went back a touch in his 3rd out 1st around 2 turns and in the slop,draw a line through that solid pattern.
Lookin at Lee: Closer of the bunch 2nd of the layoff and has paired his last 3. If the move forward doesn't happen today does it ever happen?

Show:Silver Bullion'I am a sucker for a horse with a price and pairing up his last 2 with a sire who's 3 year olds show a nice move forward.
Silver Dust: 2nd time around 2 turn's paired his last 2 out of Tapit trainer last 90 days running 37% new tops

TRI Play 7/5-10-11/1-5-8-10-11

Now the cynical side of me hopes the Pletcher horse blows the door's of the field as we have all seen this movie before and he would be a complete toss come Derby Day.

Good Luck
John