Re: Devil's Black and Gold? (889 Views)
Posted by:
Furious Pete (IP Logged)
Date: March 26, 2017 11:16PM
I don't have any stats for Bin Suroor in USA, but I do have stats for the last 3 seasons he's had in Dubai if you're interested (Meydan + Jebel Ali, he doesn't run much at Jebel Ali though, if ever). No one else is even close in Dubai, percentage wise. I'm more than happy to share them, maybe someone could help me read into them as well.
(this is by combining the last 3 seasons, and ROI is calculated by using SP)
Overall Win % = 26,1 % (ROI = 131,5 %) - sample size = 165
He's generally doing very good of layoff's (these have all decent sample sizes):
Last race 2-5 weeks = 26,2 % (ROI = 132,5 %)
Last race 6-12 weeks = 27,3 % (ROI = 129,4 %)
Last race more than 12 weeks = 28,9 % (ROI = 141,4 %)
--> a comment on that last one: they only race half the year in Dubai and the carnival doesn't begin until January, so the quality of racing is generally lower before Christmas. Also, these stats doesn't take into consideration that many of these horses runs abroad in between the seasons in Dubai, so it might not always be an actual 12 weeks+-layoff, it's only counting days between racing in Dubai.
A very interesting stat though when one is thinking in terms of the triple crown-races, where the spacing is short, is this one:
Last race under 2 weeks = 0 %, from only 5 starts! I wouldn't read too much into the percentage because the sample size is so small, and it would probably look a bit better if the stats was 14 days or less (racedays for Meydan is usually Thursdays so it's more common to see him run a horse with exactly 2 weeks layoff). However I do think it's interesting that he seems to HATE to run a horse back on short rest, and I believe that is something one should keep in mind if they ever do decide to go for the triple crown (of course they must first have the right horse to try to do it with).
3yo-stat: win % = 33,3 % from 30 starts (ROI = 80 %). 86,7 % in the money!
Distance stats:
Middle distances (6,5f - 9,2f): 27 % wins from 74 starts (ROI = 91,7 %)
Long distances (9,2 furlongs +): 25,6 % wins from 86 starts (ROI = 170,3 %)
Surface stats:
Dirt: 18,5 % (ROI = 108,5 %), from 65 starts
Turf: 31 % ! (ROI = 147,2 %), from 100 starts
Last 90 days: 25 % wins (ROI = 119,3 %), from 56 starts, so he has been even hotter before (though he's very consistent).
My apologizes if these stats are already included in the sheets one buy on here, but it has always been my impression that the stats one gets in the form is only from races being raced in America, and if so these might perhaps be a handy supplement for someone (all though they doesn't provide the amount of detail that you get when you're buying products from Thoro-Graph!).